By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Soundwave on 25 April 2019
Edit Thread
Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:
I think they will sell in the 18.5-19.5M range this year possibly and this year will be the peak year for Switch.

After that Nintendo basically runs low on new A-tier franchises, they'll have used up 3D Mario, Zelda, Pokmeon, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart (which is selling more like a regular iteration since most people didn't have a Wii U), Fire Emblem, and even 2D Mario is well represented with NSMUDX and Mario Maker 2.

The Mini model should be cheaper this year too, so I mean I think there's only so much price cuts are gonna do going past that.

That's part of the challenge Nintendo has ... they rely heavily on their A-tier franchises to sell systems, but usually by about year 3, they've used up most of those big guns. Of course they can make sequels like Mario Odyssey 2 or BOTW2 type stuff but the second time around it has a much lower effect on hardware because the fanbase for those games has already jumped on (especially when you see how well things like BOTW and Odyssey are selling).

If they don't have a true Pro model and just some lame New 3DS type revision for the base model, that hurts their long term sales projections going forward too. The Pro/X have helped the PS4/XB1 maintain sales, if Switch is really not going to have that, that's another thing the Switch doesn't get to benefit from and will likely have sales peak and then decline notably hard in year 4/5/6 as is the norm for Nintendo systems.

Your notion is a bit narrow when it comes to selling power, Mario Party for instance has sold 6m, Luigi's Mansion is a 4m seller the are still the likes of a potential Tomodachi which is a 6m selling franchise as well the will be another Pokemon title in future the will be another Zelda game fanbase being there doesn't stop it growing BOTW has grown beyond what prior games have obtained, you also don't factor in the prospect of third party deals like the Marvel Alliance one and Bayo 3, Dragon Quest XII will also definitely be on Switch with how dominant the system is over in Japan, what you list as A tier aren't the only sellers. A Pro model is not required for the long term because as 3DS, PS4 and X1 showed the enhanced model's feature is hardly used (In the X1's case barely changed it's position) plus Switch has the entire portable market to itself.

Tell that to the PS4 ... it's an old man's console by this stage and its still outselling the Switch in like it's 6th year and its hardware shipments are virtually identical to its second year (17.7 million vs. 17.5 million projected). 

That's remarkable legs. I think the Pro model certainly has a lot to do with that, its kept the hardware line fresh. 

Nintendo I don't think can match that, 3DS has shown large sales declines in year 4/5/6 from its peak, so did Wii. Nintendo's problem is they run out of A-tier IP after year 3, then they don't really have the same tier of system sellers for year 4/5/6 and the hardware becomes increasingly dated and less desirable as they try to milk the userbase for another few years until hardware sales really dwindle. 

A BOTW2 is not going to bring in like millions of new consumers, most BOTW/Zelda fans will own a Switch for BOTW. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 25 April 2019