The key question is whether early adopters are ready for a $499 console at launch, since most gamers do not buy a console its first year in the market.
Playstation 5 is going to be a premium console at launch & they'll compensate by still pushing PS4 harder than they pushed PS3 in 2013, they've hinted cross gen but I see almost all sony exclusives aside from a few small titles here and there being cross gen its first year 1 on the market, I think PS5's first big exclusive will come end of 2021. This gen already proved that improved 3rd party titles (COD/Fifa etc) are enough to push early hardware since no one actually remembers PS4/X1 launch exclusives.
Microsoft has already proven to be comfortable testing out the $499 mark again with X1X & they'll compensate by release a cheap 1080p system.
Both sony and MS will launch their systems with improved versions of their biggest IP (THLOU/Halo) to compensate for the lack of exclusive content but by their second year I see them dropping to a $449 price point.