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I was skeptical in the "Will Nintendo ship 20m Switch units" thread. They already knew they wouldn't make that number when Furukawa called it an ambitious goal a month or so ago. Looks like I was right and I stand by my hypothesis: Nintendo expected Labo to do big numbers but Labo never was a blue ocean product like the games on Wii and DS. Thus, it predictably failed to push hardware.

On a positive note, the results are still good and software sales are outstanding. But Nintendo has to do something this year to push sales. I'm skeptical about the Switch selling 20m+ as of late. Q1 2019 (calendar year) looks barren from a software perspective and if we don't get a Direct in the next days, I expect it to stay that way. Metroid's development reboot certainly makes it harder to fill up the release schedule for the year. I hope we will get a Direct soon and Nintendo will prove me wrong.

They'll also need a price cut this year as the Switch is somewhat underperforming in Japan compared to the 3DS (and DS as well, of course). It's time to drop 3DS development once and for all now and focus on the Switch. What made the DS and Wii sell like crazy were the steady streams of software. And Nintendo could've had such a steady stream for Switch last year if those 3DS games had been Switch titles (or cross-platform) instead.