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drinkandswim on 04 January 2019
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Nate4Drake said:
drinkandswim said:

If Nintendo can transition properly without fracturing their install base with a Pro Version. Switch will have a 70 million install base by the time next gen arrives. The technological leap for Microsoft from Xbox One to Xbox 4 is going to be minimal. I mean they are literally talking about ray tracing as the only improvement but still only offering 4k 30fps. Which is way below PC Capabilities. Switch in the meantime is using 20nm technology and there is already 7nm technology available for mobile devices. 20 nm to 7 nm is a much bigger technological leap than the next console generation leap. TV technology 4K wont be mainstream until 2020 which means that limits the upward limits as far as resolution goes. Now like I said in my initial argument maybe Sony or Microsoft have a hybrid that demolishes Switch, but if they just go Console against Switch they could be in trouble. The power increase from Xbox One X to Xbox 4 is going to be very minimal. Will it be enough reason for an upgrade?

And although we say overall Switch hasn't made an impact on PS4 Sales and Xbox One sales yet, they are still trending towards that. Keep in mind that Xbox One X (a major revision) Launched a year ago and Xbox One Sales are at best flat for 2018.

Market Share 2016        2017                      2018                  2016 to 2018 Market Share Changes

Hardware

PS4 65%                           49.3%                     45.0%                 - 20%

Xbox One 31%                18.8%                     18.5%                  -12.5%

Wii U 4.2%                       32.0% (NS)             36.5% (NS)         +32.3%

Software

PS4 64%                           59.9%                      56.8%                    -7.2%

Xbox One 29.4%             22.9%                      20.6%                     -8.8%

Wii U 7%                          17.2% (NS)              22.5% (NS)            +15.5%

 

Now you can blame it all you want on age or 3DS dropping from the market. However, I do feel Switch is making some impact that wont be fully felt until 2019 and 2020 upto the launch of the new systems. Also keep in mind that the Switch is priced at $299. The 3DS was at a $150 price point or less for the 2DS models. So Switch is priced as more of a console than a handheld (currently).

 

(Note 2018 Market Share %'s as of November 24th from VG Chartz Global numbers. 2016 and 2017 from VG Chartz Yearly Global Numbers.)

I'm so sorry to disappoint you, but Switch will never have a user base of 70M when PS5 or Next XBox will be released, I think you should revise your calculations; and even if this will MAGICALLY happen, it won't affect PS5 and Next XBox, 'cause both will be True Next Gen Home Consoles capable of massive AAA 3rd Party titles, while Switch or any Switch revision is just a portable console which can be connected to a TV.

 Then you say :""The technological leap for Microsoft from Xbox One to Xbox 4 is going to be minimal. I mean they are literally talking about ray tracing as the only improvement but still only offering 4k 30fps""

I have no idea which is the source where you are collecting your informations, but according to MS, XBox Anaconda will be an insane piece of Hardware, even much more powerful than X1X.

 People who want a Next Gen Home Console will buy XBox or Playstation, people who prefer a portable which can be attached to a TV, will go with Switch, easy as that.  It doesn't matter which will be the user Base of Switch when PS5 and Next XBox will come out; if you wanna play TLOU Part2 in full glory, or GTAVI, or Forza Horizon5, the Next Halo at native 4K/30-60 fps, the next GOW,  COD, RDR3, and all the best massive AAA 3rd party games on Consoles, you have only 2 options, which is Sony or Microsoft.

 No Switch revision will ever allow you to play the best 3rd party game experience; you will have the small-midium sized games, and even downgraded, and this will get worse year after year.  With this, I'm not saying that Switch is not offering its very unique and interesting game experience; I'm just saying that Nintendo has diverted to another "territory", and will barely affect Sony or MS.   It's all about PS5 and Scarlet, and if they Sony and MS will deliver a great product and presentation, they will be successful like PS4 and 360, respectively.

 

By March 2019 Switch will have an install base of approximately 37 million based on Nintendo Projections. Somehow you think selling another 33 million between April 2019 and December 2020 is a lot? The best 3rd Party Experience will and always will be PC. So console sales will come down to Exclusives. Which is why I said PS5 will still be successful but will have a smaller life time sales than PS4. Microsoft has already proven they have no traction in the market with flat sales and a major revision (Xbox One to Xbox One X).

Last edited by drinkandswim - on 04 January 2019