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drinkandswim on 04 January 2019
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Hiku said:
drinkandswim said:

No, I absolutely do not expect to see a major impact in the first two years of a brand new systems life. You really think that a 0 install base system is going to make a major impact on already existing install bases. And granted I base my prediction of Xbox 4 failing on the basis that Nintendo pulls out the right cards up to 2020. That could not happen. I don't think PS5 is going to fail I just don't see it reaching PS4 numbers. 

But if we haven't seen a significant impact in the first two years of Switch on the market (which I agree with), then why would you say that PS5 and XBO are in big trouble?

I wouldn't expect PS5 to do PS4 numbers even if Switch didn't exist. There have only been 3 home consoles in the history of gaming to pass 100m units. PS4 will be the 4th to do it. And it will probably end up being the #2 best selling home console of all time.
That's not something you'd just expect by default for PS5.
'Not doing PS4 numbers' does not equal 'big trouble'. In terms of sales, even N64's 32M was not considered a failure. (Losing all the 3rd party support was, though.)

If Nintendo can transition properly without fracturing their install base with a Pro Version. Switch will have a 70 million install base by the time next gen arrives. The technological leap for Microsoft from Xbox One to Xbox 4 is going to be minimal. I mean they are literally talking about ray tracing as the only improvement but still only offering 4k 30fps. Which is way below PC Capabilities. Switch in the meantime is using 20nm technology and there is already 7nm technology available for mobile devices. 20 nm to 7 nm is a much bigger technological leap than the next console generation leap. TV technology 4K wont be mainstream until 2020 which means that limits the upward limits as far as resolution goes. Now like I said in my initial argument maybe Sony or Microsoft have a hybrid that demolishes Switch, but if they just go Console against Switch they could be in trouble. The power increase from Xbox One X to Xbox 4 is going to be very minimal. Will it be enough reason for an upgrade?

And although we say overall Switch hasn't made an impact on PS4 Sales and Xbox One sales yet, they are still trending towards that. Keep in mind that Xbox One X (a major revision) Launched a year ago and Xbox One Sales are at best flat for 2018.

Market Share 2016        2017                      2018                  2016 to 2018 Market Share Changes

Hardware

PS4 65%                           49.3%                     45.0%                 - 20%

Xbox One 31%                18.8%                     18.5%                  -12.5%

Wii U 4.2%                       32.0% (NS)             36.5% (NS)         +32.3%

Software

PS4 64%                           59.9%                      56.8%                    -7.2%

Xbox One 29.4%             22.9%                      20.6%                     -8.8%

Wii U 7%                          17.2% (NS)              22.5% (NS)            +15.5%

 

Now you can blame it all you want on age or 3DS dropping from the market. However, I do feel Switch is making some impact that wont be fully felt until 2019 and 2020 upto the launch of the new systems. Also keep in mind that the Switch is priced at $299. The 3DS was at a $150 price point or less for the 2DS models. So Switch is priced as more of a console than a handheld (currently).

 

(Note 2018 Market Share %'s as of November 24th from VG Chartz Global numbers. 2016 and 2017 from VG Chartz Yearly Global Numbers.)

Last edited by drinkandswim - on 04 January 2019