Is LABO going to explode this holiday?

[outlawauron]

TheMisterManGuy said:

outlawauron said:

I would see a more detailed breakdown like we have for Japan, because we know that it still hasn't sold through its initial Japanese shipment. While the expectations (and marketing push from Nintendo) shifted with the third Labo kit, it's not matching up with initial expectations.

Nintendo shipped around 200k of the Variety Kit, and around 80k or so of the Robot Kit at launch. Not sure what the shipments for the Vehicle Kit were, but considering it was greatly reduced, I'm betting it's around 50k. I know for sure that the Variety Kit has sold through nearly it's entire first shipment so far, and the Vehicle Kit has sold through the majority of its shipments as well

According to Famitsu Top 30:

26./00. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01: Variety Kit (Nintendo) {2018.04.20} (¥6.980) - 2.462 / 212.754 <80-100%> 

27./00. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 03: Drive Kit (Nintendo) {2018.09.14} (¥6.980) - 2.453 / 38.003 <60-80%> 

Nintendo also hasn't been marketing Labo as much as you think. In fact, they've kept it completely almost entirely isolated from the rest of their Switch marketing efforts so far (it wasn't in any Directs, wasn't at E3, and there hasn't been many ads for it). They also mentioned how they want this to be a product that sells for a long time, so I don't think they're placing all their eggs in the Holiday basket for it. 

As for where 1 million came from, all kits combined sold 1.39 million as of July 31st according to Nintendo. 

First week shipment I have seen for the Variety Kit is 280k, not 200k.

For comparison these are the biggest launch shipments of Nintendo Switch titles in Japan, all of these data is of course retail only.

Numbers for Super Mario Odyssey and Nintendo Labo Kit 1 are estimates. pic.twitter.com/6O4M5Hdv3R

— Game Data Library (@GameDataLibrary) November 23, 2018

That's what I was operating my post off of.