Miyamotoo said:
Yes, it is secondary target, but you sound like you talking generaly about Switch sales not just about those 150m sales. Again, Switch will have sequels and sequels can be quite different compared to previous game (BotW is very different compared to Skyward Sword), same like new IPs, 3rd party exclusives, 3rd party games.. Its not how its work, saying that people who wanted some franchise already bought console is totally wrong, you have different people with differrent preferences, for instance, you have some people that want to buy Switch to play Zelda but they think price point is still high for Switch, than you have some people that want to play Zelda, but they want onother Zelda game at least, or you have some people that want to play Zelda but they want much more exclusive games for system (I mean instead Zelda you can put any other game), than you have some people that want more game like Diablo 3 or Dark Souls to play them in full handheld mode, or more games like Octopath Traveler, Bayonetta 3...you can take example of PS4 with God Of War game, IP was already on PS4 but new GoW in despite GoW 3 was on PS4 gave huge boost PS4 sales in its 5. year on market. Difference is that Switch is essentially handheld hardware, and plenty of people see Switch like handheld on first place and they dont want to gave $300 for Switch when for instance they know there is PS4 or XB1 with one game for $200. Also difference is that Switch can sell like device per person (like every handheld can) while only home consoles cant, and Switch still has high price point for such a selling, just example family with multiply kids, hardly that with $300 per console they would buy 2-3 Switch units per house, but with price point $150-200, that way more possible. Talking about revisions, Switch will have multiply revisions and different price point, including low price offer similar like 2DS was for 3DS.
Dont forget, Switch is NIntendos unifed platform, so they have much more options for support because they will suporting just one platform, so like I wrote, that means new IPs, reviving old IPs, much more 3rd party exclusives, ports/remasters of great games from past console, sequels and new games.. But that what you fail to see, similar to 3DS, Switch also dont have real competition on market, point that all consoles can sell great in same time proves that. Also when you comparing Switch and 3DS, Switch is selling much better world wide than 3DS in same time period whithout huge price cut or revision like 3DS had, it's much healthier platform with much stronger sales. Like I wrote, only DS and PS2 reached 150m, so that will be incredible hard in any case for any console including PS4, but Switch can easily pass 100m+ at least. |
Miyamotoo, i was very specific on talking about the sales, be it 250M or 150M.
Yes, sequels can be different, but the audience, not so much.
That's the problem with sequels: they already capture a good part of it's audience with the first game. And in the case of an amazing game like BoTW, it will be hard to create something as appealing anytime soon.
I'm not denying that new IPs - or even 3rd party games - can't further boost Switch.
But let's face it, odds are that it most likely won't happen.
If you look at recent history 3DS was helped by the popularity of Pokémon Go and Xb360, by how well Kinect was received. I really can't find an exemple where a game helped a console so much as to change it's natural course, besides FF7. A game that truly helped PS1 become a hit.
"for instance, you have some people that want to buy Switch to play Zelda but they think price point is still high for Switch, than you have some people that want to play Zelda, but they want onother Zelda game at least, or you have some people that want to play Zelda but they want much more exclusive games for system"
If the entry price is an obstacle, why has it sold close to (probably more if we take into account recent numbers) 9 million copies? Every single system seller for Switch has sold amazingly well and even in less time than other entries in the respective franchises.
If what you are claiming was correct, those numbers wouldn't be so high, so fast.
Price clearly isn't the obstacle you think it is.
You can't compare Zelda and GoW: the first entry on Switch was a mainline game; the first entry on PS4 was a port.
Not only that, Zelda (using again as an example) already has close to 9 million users. How many users do you think will remain to get the console between now and when a sequel arrives?
"plenty of people see Switch like handheld on first place"
Saying that it's handheld HW is already a big stretch, but how do you justify the above when the system has been "sold" since day one as a home console system on the go, when the majority of it's sellers are home console experiences and everything about it is to sell it as a home console more than handheld?
Just because Switch can be bought one per person and not household, doesn't mean it will actually be that way.
What you are also forgetting is that even when the price reaches the plateau to make that happen, the console will have more competition (PS5 and XB2) and it means that parents also have to buy two copies of games. Not the best proposition now, is it?
"Talking about revisions, Switch will have multiply revisions and different price point, including low price offer similar like 2DS was for 3DS."
We have talked about this before.
What makes you believe that Nintendo is willing to go that low when it's console is selling a lot?
They have a different proposition to their customers, therefore, they don't need to act based on old ways that were reflex of a certain type of proposition.
If Sony can sell more than 80M consoles at a price not lower than 300$, why should Nintendo, who is selling a lot of Switchs, need to go that low? To make less money?
"Switch is NIntendos unifed platform, so they have much more options for support because they will suporting just one platform"
With this i fully agree.
Problem is, it's been this way since pretty much late 2014, early 2015 and we haven't seen the fruits of this. Not even 2017 is a good example, when MK and Zelda were basically ports and Splatoon 2 clearly uses a lot of the work done with the first game.
Using 2nd parties or paying for exclusives is another story.
Also, we have no idea what type of games Nintendo is preparing: are they more or less heavy on the human resources front? Will they all use new assets or old ones?
What first party games (and i mean only 1st party games) do we know about for 2019? A port of NSMBU; Animal Crossing and what else? Really, what are Nintendo's own studios in Japan and outside of Japan, preparing?
Shouldn't we have more by now?
To be honest, this option, of streamlining their games production, has been my dream since early 2014 - when Iwata started talking about this. But so far, it's more of a letdown.
Switch is outselling 3DS because it's much more appealing. Game librar's alone is proof of that.
That argument kinda proves my point that higher price points aren't always an obstable for big sales!
No, 3DS didn't have any type of competition at all. Switch clearly does.
The fact that all 3 companies are doing ok to great, doesn't mean that suddenly the market found room for all.
Switch's condition is unique: it came at a time where there were more than 80 million consoles had been sold. That's a big userbase ready for something new.
The fact that 70% of Switch owners already have a PS4 or XB1 shows that people aren't in a situation to have to choose, they can, now, justify having both. That's why Switch is selling so well.
In a scenario where Switch was released at the same time as PS4 and XB1, you can bet things would be completely different.
Also, the fact that Switch isn't stealing costumers shows that in such a situation Switch wouldn't be doing as well as it is doing now.
To me, Switch doesn't have the potential to go past 100M. There's no signs of a disruptive tech or game that can help Switch; by the end of 2019 most system sellers will already be out and we don't know if Nintendo can produce new ones of that caliber; 3d party support is lacking and there's no signs it will improve (in quality) and PS5 and XB2 are coming in 2020, if not before.
Consoles that go past 100M don't magically do it, they require sustainability. And Switch hasn't shown that yet.
