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Miyamotoo on 11 December 2018
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DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

 

But Switch doesn't need to be mass first consumer choice or to have best 3rd party support in order to have great sales, Switch this year will be ship close to 20m despite didnt wasnt first consumer choice or despite didnt had best 3rd party support, any price cut or revision. I mean even Wii or DS didnt had best 3rd party support.

Switch had some it its biggest IPs, but on other hand Switch is still $300 device and Switch didnt had any kind of price cut or revision yet, device like Switch for which you said is not "mass first consumer choice" will have huge boost with price cuts and revisions, simple because there are plenty of people that dont want to pay currently $300 for Switch when you can very offten PS4/XB1 for $200, but in few year Switch will have price point of $200 or lower with multiply revisions, and even stronger built lineup.

Switch will have new IPs, new Pokemon games, New 3D Mario/Zelda games...new 3rd party exclusives, and like I wrote multiply price cuts and revisions. Just for record I dont saying Switch will hit 150m, but Switch passing 100m is very possible and we need to stay open mind to Switch potential and sales.

"Just for record I dont saying Switch will hit 150m."
But that was the secondary target set for Switch, on this thread. :)

Switch might not need, now, to be the number one choice or have the best 3rd party support, but that won't be true forever. 

Nintendo is burning through it's system sellers really fast.
In 2019, pretty much all system sellers will have been out and it's not because of sequels that the console will see HW sales rise again like we are seeing now. Usually, sequelstend  to sell less because... they are sequels; on a HW basis, people who wanted the franchise already had time to buy the console, so, most of it's potential sales are done.

If there's one thing we learnt with consoles like PS3, PS4 and XB360, is that the old mantra of 200$ will make sales rise and rise, is no longer true.
Consumers are more than willing to buy consoles for higher prices because they know that prices won't go down like before - where in a "short" amount of time, they reached 99 or 149 dollars.
The most recent case being PS4: yes, it's true that the 200$ price tag helped it gain a few million, but with 400$ and, then, 300$ price points, it sold 80+ million consoles.
More, Sony recently said that for every 5 PS4 sold, one is a PRO.
For a console that adds nothing more than better graphics and costs 100$ more, the idea that people are waiting for price cuts doesn't really fit market trends.

I'm not saying that if Switch gets a price cut it will have no meaningful impact, but given it's current appeal, there's no good reason for expect it to put Switch sales in a new plateau - as if people are anxiously waiting for the price cut. People want it now.
And speaking of lowering prices for Switch, they kinda did that during BF and now in Europe with the inclusion, at no cost, of MK8. And we know how this worked!

 

Personally, i believe that this rush to the market of Nintendo's strongest IPs will actually hurt them in the long run: they got off to a really great start, but they don't have - at least so far - the "weapons" to sustain this impact in the final years of the console. And this may very well dissapoint a lot of people.
3DS pulled it off thanks to revisions and Pokémon Go success, but mostly because it had no competition. And even then it will not reach the 100 million despite being on the market for almost 8 years.

The only way i see Switch reaching such numbers is due to two things: somehow Nintendo comes up with a couple of new system sellers for it's late years and PS5 and XB2 aren't that attractive (causing a slower adoption rate).

Yes, it is secondary target, but you sound like you talking generaly about Switch sales not just about those 150m sales.

Again, Switch will have sequels and sequels can be quite different compared to previous game (BotW is very different compared to Skyward Sword), same like new IPs, 3rd party exclusives, 3rd party games..

Its not how its work, saying that people who wanted some franchise already bought console is totally wrong, you have different people with differrent preferences, for instance, you have some people that want to buy Switch to play Zelda but they think price point is still high for Switch, than you have some people that want to play Zelda, but they want onother Zelda game at least, or you have some people that want to play Zelda but they want much more exclusive games for system (I mean instead Zelda you can put any other game), than you have some people that want more game like Diablo 3 or Dark Souls to play them in full handheld mode, or more games like Octopath Traveler, Bayonetta 3...you can take example of PS4 with God Of War game, IP was already on PS4 but new GoW in despite GoW 3 was on PS4 gave huge boost PS4 sales in its 5. year on market.

Difference is that Switch is essentially handheld hardware, and plenty of people see Switch like handheld on first place and they dont want to gave $300 for Switch when for instance they know there is PS4 or XB1 with one game for $200. Also difference is that Switch can sell like device per person (like every handheld can) while only home consoles cant, and Switch still has high price point for such a selling, just example family with multiply kids, hardly that with $300 per console they would buy 2-3 Switch units per house, but with price point $150-200, that way more possible. Talking about revisions, Switch will have multiply revisions and different price point, including low price offer similar like 2DS was for 3DS.

 

Dont forget, Switch is NIntendos unifed platform, so they have much more options for support because they will suporting just one platform, so like I wrote, that means new IPs, reviving old IPs, much more 3rd party exclusives, ports/remasters of great games from past console, sequels and new games..

But that what you fail to see, similar to 3DS, Switch also dont have real competition on market, point that all consoles can sell great in same time proves that. Also when you comparing Switch and 3DS, Switch is selling much better world wide than 3DS in same time period whithout huge price cut or revision like 3DS had, it's much healthier platform with much stronger sales.

Like I wrote, only DS and PS2 reached 150m, so that will be incredible hard in any case for any console including PS4, but Switch can easily pass 100m+ at least.