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Miyamotoo on 10 December 2018
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DakonBlackblade said:

There is one big thing you guys are forgetting about that will threaten the Switch quite a bit. The next Xbox and PS5, Switch can't hope to run the games that will be made for the next gen, it'll be a WiiU scenario again from third party support perspective when that happens. I believe Switch is good enought on its own to have some exclusive third party titles and Nint games are great but I think there's a cealling to it's growth that is directly dependant on how soon the next generation starts.

First you need to from point that reason why Switch is selling great even now are not 3rd party games. Second, PS5/XB2 power difference will most likely go for native 4K resolution and 60 FPS, so Switch could still get some PS5/XB2 ports at 720p for instance, offocurse I dont talk about game like RDR2 that coming even now on Switch, but more about A-AA games. Third Switch is nothing like Wii U, Wii U was dead after 1st year and had very small install base without any sign of growt, Switch is opposite, very healty platform that will have huge install base in any case, so you can expect that some 3rd parties will keep supporting it regardless PS5/XB2 and that includes 3rd party exclusive games also.

 

DélioPT said: 


Unlike PS2 or PS4, Switch is not the mass consumer's first choice for a console, nor does it have the best 3d party support to help it reach such a lofty goal.

 
Not only that but, when 2018 is over, most of Nintendo's biggest IPs will already be out: Zelda 3D, Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon, Pokémon (even if not the true core experience). With only Animal Crossing, a true Pokémon (assuming it doesn't share a lot of it's audience with the Let's Go consumers) and a proper 2D Mario (assuming the Wii U port doesn't eat a lot of a proper 2D Mario game audience, when it's released).

We will also have other IPs on the market: Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong, Xenoblade, Mario Party and Arms. Leaving Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario, Tomodachi (??), Mario Maker and Mario & Luigi to come out.

So, exactly how is Switch, without the best 3rd party support and only a few system sellers left, going to reach 150m in sales?
Unless Nintendo is sitting on quite a few system sellers that we don't know about and a lot of 3rd party support incoming, it will be impossible for them to reach those numbers.

But Switch doesn't need to be mass first consumer choice or to have best 3rd party support in order to have great sales, Switch this year will be ship close to 20m despite didnt wasnt first consumer choice or despite didnt had best 3rd party support, any price cut or revision. I mean even Wii or DS didnt had best 3rd party support.

Switch had some it its biggest IPs, but on other hand Switch is still $300 device and Switch didnt had any kind of price cut or revision yet, device like Switch for which you said is not "mass first consumer choice" will have huge boost with price cuts and revisions, simple because there are plenty of people that dont want to pay currently $300 for Switch when you can very offten PS4/XB1 for $200, but in few year Switch will have price point of $200 or lower with multiply revisions, and even stronger built lineup.

Switch will have new IPs, new Pokemon games, New 3D Mario/Zelda games...new 3rd party exclusives, and like I wrote multiply price cuts and revisions. Just for record I dont saying Switch will hit 150m, but Switch passing 100m is very possible and we need to stay open mind to Switch potential and sales.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 10 December 2018