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curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

The DS era was a different time, people were easier to impress, the full weight of what Apple was about to do and the smartphone industry had not really shaped people's expectations. 

So something like the OG DS to DS Lite was considered an impressive change for 2006, but that's 12 years ago.

The 3DS revisions ... every single one of them basically resulted in no sales boost, and in many cases it actually resulted in a decline. 

Past that, I don't even think the 5-6 year cycle works for Nintendo, it was a set up born out of the 1980s when Nintendo had 100% third party support and could easily have 5 years of content. 

In the post Playstation era where Nintendo doesn't get that anymore and has to rely on basically 7 or 8 main franchises to sell a platform ... it's hard to not be tapped out of content even by year 3. The Switch for example will have used up basically all the A/B-tier Nintendo franchises by the end of 2019 (3D Mario, 2D Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, PLG, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem). It's not a coincidence most Nintendo hardware sales really start to decline by year 4/5 of their hardware cycles, because that hardware cycle was never designed to be a setup where the system was mainly sold by Nintendo games. The NES and SNES were not like that. 

Switch is not the 3DS, it's selling as well at $300 as 3DS did at a $170. There's a lot of interest in various hardware revisions of the original Switch.

As for "they won't have any more system sellers after year 3", even if that were true, a Switch 1.5 in 2020 and every 2 years thereafter doesn't solve that anyway.

The Switch is selling because it's *not* the 3DS. It is not some low level game machine that relies a lot on kids. By going higher tier with the Switch you have a more compelling product that's resulting in better sales. 

If you do the whole "lets just ride this platform into the ground until it's badly outdated" thing that's not going to work for the Switch. Switch is a different kind of platform from the DS/3DS/GB lines, if Nintendo tried to make a "4DS" today it probably wouldn't even hit 50 million. Reason being smart phone games have really cannibalized the kids and budget market. The 3DS still has some sway there, but it's a small market. 

The higher end market is where it's at for Nintendo, that's where you have a device that does things you can't really get on a smartphone or tablet and they need to keep IMO at least a 1 generation gap minimum between the Switch the other home consoles. If you let Sony/MS stretch it to 2 generations difference, the gap is too large and the Switch will lose credibility as a hybrid console and really just be a glorified portable that has a TV out. So when Sony/MS go to PS5/XB2, Nintendo needs to introduce a Switch that is in the PS4/XB1 tier at least. 

Otherwise the Switch brand is going to lose luster, it's not going to work as a "well now it's a cheap little Game Boy" type thing!. You cannot have revisions that are just weaksauce and think people in this day and age are gonna get too excited. Who really got that excited about that New 3DS, nobody. 13 years ago that kind of thing is impressive, but today, nah. Consumers are more savvy and want some real sizzle on that steak. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 28 November 2018