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Megiddo on 21 November 2018
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RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

No, because that won't have Monster Hunter World launching.

With the Switch, my prediction is fairly sane right now because everything I thought would happen with it happened. The logic and reason that I devised to make that prediction came through. With PS4, my prediction is fairly insane right now because everything I thought would happen didn't happen. The logic and reason that I devised to make that prediction did not come through.

I expected a full half year of sales of the PS4 at the yen equivalent of $249. It never happened. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8752221

Your Switch prediction wasn't far off the norm to begin with, because 3.8-4.0m was about where the consensus was. Everything between 3.5-4.0m remains realistic for Switch at this point.

Your PS4 prediction was an outlier though. Your weekly tracking uses 4m as Switch's target and 2m as the PS4's target, so you know that your PS4 prediction was significantly above the consensus.

2.8m wouldn't have happened even if all events you expected had happened. Shadow1980 has repeatedly shown graphs of sales curves and how price cuts in the latter half of a system's life have affected sales; a large uptick has never happened, but you predicted a ~50% gain year over year for the PS4. The reason why it doesn't happen is that at that stage of a console's lifecycle the price merely goes from fine to cheaper, so the result of such a price cut is extended stability of an already established baseline. A full half of a year at 25k yen would have added - if we are generous - an average of 10k units per week. That would have made 2m for the year feasible, but that's about it.

Can you source your data for your findings as to what the average gain of the PS4 would be if it had been 25k yen? Very interested in looking it over. For instance, I know that the PS3 was quicker to get from 7 million to 8 million than it was to go from both 6 million to 7 million and 5 million to 6 million. I had assumed that to be due to a price change, but I could be wrong.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 21 November 2018