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Here is the week 45 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 16,081 -66,034 1,359,155 68.0% (+0.8) 91,549 (+9434)
Switch 54,235 -191,483 2,088,488 52.2% (+2.1) 273,355 (+27,355)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

At this point, it looks like it's merely a race to see who can get closest to the goal. The Switch would have to sell 400k+ with the Smash/Pokemon bundles in next week's numbers to convince me it has a prayer of reaching its goal. The PS4 has no chance at all. So who can get closest? We'll have a very good idea of Pokemon and Smash's holiday power next week.