Here is the week 42 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .
|TWS||GD||YTD||% Goal||AWN (Change)|
|PS4||21,673||-43,488||1,304,895||65.2% (+1.1)||69,510 (+4349)|
|Switch||42,148||-147,806||1,952,651||48.9% (+1.1)||204,734 (+14,780)|
TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.
PS4 AWN approaches 70k and Switch AWN flies past 200k. I don't see anything on the horizon for Switch in the next few weeks, so I guess it's just waiting for Pokemon and the Smash bundle. I thought maybe sales would start picking up for it since this is Q4 but looks like October is pretty much the same as practically every month this year. If Switch has a decent week then it could get past the half-way point in next week's numbers.
So let's dig a little deeper into these goal numbers since this was such a boring week. PS4 in Japan has been about 9% of its total number of consoles sold LTD. So hitting 2 million in a normal year would mean that about ~22 million PS4s were sold around the globe that year. Obviously MHW puts a big wrench into that kind of thinking , but it just gives a ballpark figure for us to think about. Whereas with the Switch, Japan has accounted for around 25% of its total number of consoles sold LTD. Selling 4 million this year would mean that about 16 million consoles were sold this year. Needless to say that Nintendo needs a HUGE November and December for the Switch in Japan or it's potentially going to look rather foolish in front of its investors. Though we'lll get much more info on its trajectory in next week's fiscal quarter shareholder meeting of course, so this is likely all just premature conjecture and I could easily look the fool afterwards.