Why is the Switch still not getting big games from 3rd parties? October edition

[potato_hamster]

Miyamotoo said:

potato_hamster said:

  You made the claim that it's greater than 90%. You can't back that up with a handful of examples, you need to back it up with statistics based on the sales of hundreds of multi-platform games. So please go ahead.

The best selling games aren't the best examples because again, the vast majority of games don't sell like the top 5% do. Most Nintendo Switch games do not have very good legs. Only the handful you mentioned did. I'm not going to go back and check, but let's say you mentioned 10 games. According to Wikipedia there are over 1200 Nintendo Switch games. You're talking about less than 0.008% of the Switch's library, and using these titles to represent the entirety of it. I'm actually account for that other 95% + you're ignoring.

We can say with some certainty? Why is that? I've conceded that it's more than zero, but again, that doesn't tell us anything. But is it more than 100K? Can you be certain of that? How about 200K? 1 million? You have no idea. It is the point that we can't know how many, since  total game sales aren't directly related to a console's platform's total sales. You refuse to concede this, even though if there was a direct relationship you would be able to reasonably predict how many copies of a game would sell on a higher or lower install base. 

So if you think it's some grand point that if title A sells 2 million copies on the Switch when there's 20 million Switches sold and when the Switch hits 40 million sold, title A is at 2.1 million copies sold, and when the Switch hits 60 million sold it's at 2.15 million sold, and since 2.15 is greater than 2,  then that means that sales grow with install base, then you're making one of the frailest points in this thread. It's insignificant. It doesn't matter even a little bit.  it doesn't show that install base impacts sales in any meaningful way any more than time does. For all you know those 150K sold after those two milestones were hit were all bought by people who owned the console when it hit the 20 million milestone, which again, would mean the extra 40 million switches sold made zero impact on sales. So the best you can say about the impact install base has on a game is that it may have some immeasurable impact. If you want to get hung up on that, that's on you.

Well the reason you keep bringing up attach rate is you think that it justifies third party sales that for higher budget, expensive to port games don't instill confidence that there's money to be made. The question the OP asks is why big games aren't coming to the Switch. Attach rate has literally nothing to do with that.

Look itself, you will see that I right, just look at first 100 best selling games on PS4 and XB1.

I talking about Nintendo games for Switch, and yes Nintendo Switch games for Switch have very good legs. Look that at that link that I gave you and look again at end of month with updates. But, again clear fact is that every game will have better sales with higher Switch install base in any case, some more than other offcourse.

Fact that some game on same platform will sell more how install base is growing, tell you that is wrong to compare sales of games where you have one platform of install base of 20m and other of 80m.

Again, fact is that every game will sell better how much install base is growing, some will sell more than others, but point is that every game will sell better. You have hard time accepting that very clear fact. And again, I was primarly talking about Nintendo games for Switch, and we all know that Nintendo games usualy have very good legs, and we already seeing those legs with most games that Nintendo released for Switch.

You are again wrong, that was never my itend, and I didnt talk about 3rd party sales at all, in our hole discussion I didnt menatione sales of 3rd party games on Switch not single time.  You wrote this "The results might surprise you. Sony first party titles are selling higher than most Nintendo IPs", and I made reply to that your post because and later to your point that install base dont have effect on games sales.

Not, it doesn't work that way. First, you made the claim, so it's on you to support that claim. Secondly, there are thousands of multi-platform games on PS4 and Xbox one, not 100, so your sample size isn't big enough.

If you're only talking about Nitnendo games for Switch you're moving the goalposts, and making a meaningless distinction. So many first party Nintendo games have legs. So what? What does that have to do with the fact that the vast majority of games do not, and what does that have anything to do with the sales of big third party games on Switch? Ohh right. Nothing.

To think that it's wrong to compare the sales of a game that sells 1 million of PS4 and 100K on Switch because less than 1% of Switch users bought a game and apparently that isn't enough of an install base to have higher sales numbers. Completely ridiculous. if Mario Odyssey can sell 11 million copies on Switch, any game can.

No, games do not necessarily sell better based on the install base. Take for example the Dreamcast. Sega stopped producing dreamcasts 14 months after its release, yet some games still continued to sell copies 2-3 years after Sega stopped producing Dreamcasts. Where did those sales come from? It certainly wasn't that increasing install base, so what was it?

This is a thread about third party sales. If you can't talk about third party sales, then there's not much point of talking in there's thread, is there? First party sales are irrelevant to this conversation.

Most Nitnendo IPs do not have 8 million + in sales like Uncharted 4 and Horizon: Zero Dawn have done, or God of War and Spider-man will do. That's a fact. Nintendo has a lot more IPs that Mario, Mario Kart, and Zelda, you know. That again, has little to do with install base. The PS3 has about the same sales as the PS4, and PS3's first party games didn't sell nearly as well as the new titles on PS4 are. See if you can figure out why.