Why is the Switch still not getting big games from 3rd parties? October edition

[potato_hamster]

Miyamotoo said:

potato_hamster said:

90%? Soucce?

Every game continues to sell so long as there's people that think it's worth buying at the price it has. That still doesn't indicate that having an install base of 4 times higher than another console automatically means that sales should be significantly higher on PS4. I'm not talking about best selling games. Those are the very small minority of games on a platform. I'm talking about the others 95+% of games on a platform that do the vast majority of their sales within the first six months of release and do not continue to grow with increased install base. You're cherry picking the exceptions and pretending it represents the whole.

And I don't care about these handful of games that are still selling decently a year after release. Again these are exceptions. Most games go out of print within the first two years of release, so they  can't possibly steadily increase sales with install base.

And again, a game like Breath of the Wild (whose sales are still slowing but at a slower rate than most titles) is the exception to the rule. You keep bringing up these handful of exceptions. Take a game like "This is the Police". I doubt they're still making copies of that game. The sales of that game at 20 million will be pretty much the same as it will be when Switch sales reach 40 million. Because they stopped making copies. Because people stopped buying it. Because most games sales don't have "legs".

Why can't we know what Twilight Princess sales would be if Wii sales were only 50 million instead of 105 million. Ohh right, it's because there's no direct relationship between the two. That's exactly my point. The only difference between the two is that in one case Twillight Princess has the potential to sell 50 million copies and in the second case it has the potential to sell 105 million copies. Now can you please stop claiming otherwise?

How a game sells compared to its install base doesn't matter. It's meaningless. It demonstrates nothing other then how many games the average console owner buys,and that information doesn't actually help sell more copies of games in any way.

Look here at best selling games on PS4 and XB1.

That realy depends from game to game, but fact is that any game will have higher sales on same platform when install is bigger compared to when it was lower, even Killzone on PS4 now has higher sales than it did on in PS4s 1st year. You arguing against clear facts and logic.

Again we talked Sony vs Nintendo games, and most Nintendo Switch games have very good legs.

Exception? You have plenty of examples when we talk about Nintendo games on Switch, Zelda, MK8D, Odyssey, Splatoon2, 1-2 Switch, Kirby, DKTF...look at official numbers for top 10 best selling games and look at update for same games at end of this month.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

 

Lol, you dont make any sense, offcourse that we cant know how much exactly Zelda TP would sell if Wii had install base of 50m instead of 105m, but we can say that certanly would have less sales than it did at end with 105m install base. Same goes for every Switch game, every Switch game will sell better with higher install base, espacily when we talk about Nintendo games that traditionally have very good legs.

No, it's totally meaningless comparing sales of games on platforms where one has 4x bigger install base, thats a fact. Attach rate has much more sense when you comparing sales of platforms with totally different install basis instead of sales numbers, it simple show how much some game is selling compared to its install base.

I'm not concerned with just the best selling games. I'm concerned with most multi-platform games. You made the claim that it's greater than 90%. Now back that up.

I'm not arguing against logic and facts. My point has been that for the vast majority of titles, the vast majority of their sales are within the first six months to a year. This is borne out again and again. It'll be difficult for you to find many examples where this is not true. Because of this fact, the install base actually has very little factor in the overall sales of a game title. I'm never claimed it was zero, I claimed it was insignificant to the point of being meaningless.

Yes, exceptions. I'm not just talking about the ten best selling games. I'm talking about the hundreds of games that don't have top 10 sales numbers ever, that don't continue to sell quarter after quarter, you know, 95%+ of a console's game library. Even popular titles in popular franchises, say Assassin's Creed: Odyssey (I can't help myself)  won't be selling millions of copies in 2019. Those games have no legs, and this is the status quo for again, 95%+ of a game console's library.

Can you say with certainty that Twilight Princess would have less sales if the Wii had 50 million in sales vs 105 million? I mean, it stands to reason that some of that extra 55 million would have bought the game. But how many? If it would only be a couple hundred thousand than that 55 million had an extremely low impact on sales, wouldn't it? That would mean that the extra user base didn't lead to meaningfully better sales.  Every Switch game won't sell meaningfully better with a higher install base, mostly because, again, for over 95% of games, they don't keep printing and printing copies of the games until literally no one buys them. Many games will have no higher sales 4 years after release than they will 2 years after release since there aren't any more copies to buy.

Just a simple rhetorical question: Is it possible to make a multi-platform game that sells 5 million copies on PS4 and 5 million copies on Switch? If yes, then install base has no factor if a multi-platform game has 5 million sales on PS4 and 800K on Switch. 4.2 more Switch users could have bought the game just like the 5 million PS4 users did, but they chose not to. And again, attach rate has absolutely no impact to the people that actually decide whether or not a game should be brought to Switch, so it should have no place in this conversation. It doesn't actually indicate anything meaningful, but unsurprisingly is a go-to argument for those who want to justify their lowered the expectations of some users on this site.