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Those numbers seem seriously off, 45 million Xbox Ones sold? I know VGC isn't perfect but I find it hard to believe they'd be 7 million off.

Unless Nintendo seriously drops the ball, Switch passing Xbox One by the end of 2020 is pretty much a given. Xbox has already fired pretty much all its big guns (Halo, Gears, unbundling Kinect, price cuts, hardware revisions) while Switch is still at full price, hasn't had any hardware revisions yet, and still has heavy hitters like Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, etc in their arsenal.