Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

[Bofferbrauer2]

Megiddo said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Ever heard of holiday season?

Pachter basically just took Nintendos FY Q1 results (April to June), multiplied by 4 and rounded up. But with the 1-2-3 Falcon! Punch!! of Super Mario Party, Pokémon and Smash alone should suffice to give Q3 (October to December) well over 8M alone, nevermind what Q2 and Q4 will bring.

When someone refers to "tracking" that means that they are looking at concrete data and extrapolating it out. It does not refer to guesstimating how much it will sell for the holidays, etc. It's literally taking the slope of a line on a graph and continuing it. That's all it means.

Yeah, but he says it in a way like a) it's set in stone and b) that there's no chance in hell to even come close to 20M, as if for reaching 20M Switch would have needed to sell about 5M in the last quarter. That's the problem with his "tracking", apart from totally ignoring things like he's taking the slowest quarter as basis for his hypothesis or that different quarters have different sales or releases like Smash affecting sales.