Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

[Megiddo]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

KLXVER said:

Ok, so its not like an outrageous claim I guess.

The guy is an analyst though. Hes not going to take guesses. He just compares data with previous consoles in their second year, what the impact the last Smash and Pokémon game had on sales, the current rise and declines in sales etc...

Maybe he goes a bit "crazy", because if hes wrong, then its no big deal. But if hes right, then people go "wow, he was actually right" and his business expands.

Ever heard of holiday season?

Pachter basically just took Nintendos FY Q1 results (April to June), multiplied by 4 and rounded up. But with the 1-2-3 Falcon! Punch!! of Super Mario Party, Pokémon and Smash alone should suffice to give Q3 (October to December) well over 8M alone, nevermind what Q2 and Q4 will bring.

When someone refers to "tracking" that means that they are looking at concrete data and extrapolating it out. It does not refer to guesstimating how much it will sell for the holidays, etc. It's literally taking the slope of a line on a graph and continuing it. That's all it means.