If they do a mid-cycle refresh similar to PS4 Pro and XB1X, north of 115-125 million.

If they don't, minus 20-40 million from the above.

They key for Nintendo is not having declining sales in a large after 2020 and that's going to be a bit of a challenge because they'll have released most of their major IP by then. The solution is a significant mid-cycle refresh, it's keeping Sony and MS' numbers inflated in the second half of their life cycles, the same can happen for the Switch. 

Let the "b ... but you can't divide the userbase!" people whine and cry. It's 2018 already, it's time to move on with the times, everything from smartphones to tablets to Playstations to XBoxes have iterative upgrades that are significant more often than every 5-6 years. That hardware philosophy is badly outdated and only serves to hurt your hardware/instal base. Gotta give yourself that mid-gen boost. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 19 August 2018