Predict lifetime sales of Octopath Traveler

[Bofferbrauer2]

Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

 

Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

 

fedfed said:
1.1 it will get there slowly/eventually. don't think there is a big hype around it. judging by the pre-sales!

 

konnichiwa said:
I felt Xenoblade had more hype and it's retail wise struggling to pass the million.

Secondly pre orders in Japan aren't that hot best case it reaches 100K (except if the next days it surprisingly climbs up in pre order numbers)

 

Metroid33slayer said:
Lucky if it does a million IMO. These types of games always struggle to sell.

 

friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

Time to prepare the first round of crow. Double portion for konnichiwa for underestimating both total sales and first week sales in Japan