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Soundwave on 04 June 2018
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Nem said:
Soundwave said:
Expecting $750-$800 mill for TLJ is a bit laughably high in expectation, don't you think?

Avengers: Infinity War is probably not even going to hit $700 million, let alone $750 mill.

Star Wars doesn't have that kind of pull without massive build-up/hype for 10+ years that makes the movie a special event. The second chapter of a Star Wars usually has a 30%+ drop from the opening chapter, the big reason is "normal people" don't need to see the second chapter.

Also no Harrison Ford and good luck ... you're stuck with a galaxy full of overrated characters in terms of modern audience appeal. Just because Star Wars fans think having a cool lightsaber and a pony tail makes an awesome character alone doesn't mean the general average film viewer who is OK with Star Wars but isn't fanatical about it is going to care that much to watch a middle chapter of a Star Wars trilogy multiple times (which is basically the only way to hit $700 mill or more).

 

Umm... i'm not disagreeing with the point, but do you mean domesticly in the US? Because TLJ did above 1billion and infinity war is close to hitting 2 billion. Also, you just need to go on youtube to find out that Star Wars fans have been up in arms for quite a while about the social agendas being pushed into the movies and the disregard for the source material. Solo is the culmination of that. There is/was a boycott campaign for the movie from fans. I can only hope Disney takes action after the flop and removes Kathleen Kennedy. It might even already be too late. The woman has ruined the SW brand and is gonna leave Disney with a dud of an aquisition.

I'm talking domestically, the guy above was saying he expected $750-$800 million domestic for TLJ which is laughably unrealistic. Avengers Infinity War is not even going to hit $700 million domestic and that basically is the climax of 10 years of work by Marvel. Black Panther might be able to inch its way to $700 mill. 

"Star Wars fans" are not one monolithic group, lots of "Star Wars fans" liked the last movie, some liked Solo, some didn't like Rogue One, some like the prequels, some hate the prequels, etc. etc. Basically the only thing they agree on is that Empire Strikes Back is a good movie, that's about the only universal thing consensus Star Wars have. The fact is The Force Awakens and Rogue One were massive successes with female leads and diverse casts.  I don't think anyone is dumb enough to argue that. 

Solo is underperforming, but it has a more "traditional" cast and really no political message at all. So there's that too. 

The Last Jedi performed at about 65% of The Force Awakens. Empire did about 69% of A New Hope. Attack of the Clones did 65% of The Phantom Menace. For Special Edition release in 1997, Empire didn't less than 50% of A New Hope. So the second chapter having lower box office is really nothing new for Star Wars. 

People need to understand something too, outside of the Star Wars nerd fanbase, the "regular joe" audience isn't as fanatical about Star Wars. They like it, but don't live and breathe and die with it, they'd be just as happy watching Marvel or even Fast & Furious film (moreso in some cases). The first new Star Wars movie in 15+ years is an event. The 3rd one in 3 straight years that isn't a finale is not an event anymore. It's optional viewing for a lot of people. That's something Star Wars fans have no concept of though because they take the whole damn thing way too seriously.