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160rmf said:
Megiddo said:

Assuming that people who wanted to buy one during Nov-Dec would have purchased one as soon as they were available (which is a logical assumption) then those sales are already accounted for.

Basically it's 4 million minus Switch YTD minus the sum of Nov-Dec 2017 Switch sales divided by remaining weeks. So instead of those sales being in the Nov-Dec 2017 section they're in the Switch YTD section. They still are accounted for in the approximations.

@160rmf Why would you expect the 2nd year of a Nintendo handheld/hybrid to sell the same as the 5th year of a dedicated home console?

That's not the point. What I am saying is that you're talking like if the 145k was the max it could get from holidays. But your parameters are weak when we all know it was supply constrained that period last year.

Right, but that doesn't matter because the spillover is already included in my calculations. If 200k people wanted to buy it in Nov-Dec but instead bought it in Jan/Feb/Mar then you would simply subtract 200k from Switch YTD and add it to Nov-Dec. The actual effect on the required weekly average is 0 since adding and subtracting the same number on one side of an equation is always zero.

Basically, whether or not there would have been more sales in Nov-Dec doesn't matter at all.