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Its not a matter of if it will happen it is when! As Nvidia themselves are moving customers in the automotive sector onto the next Tegra line, having Nintendo on board with a refresh to help subsidies large chip orders of the new SoC makes sense for both companies.

At this point it makes no sense whatsoever for Nintendo to even consider a die shrink of the current model, they would be the only ones placing orders for those chips as everyone else moves on to the next. They should just work on the Switch Pro chip as the refresh and offer a cut down lite version of that SoC for a smaller more portable Switch. The Switch lite would still end up more powerful and more efficient than the out going model for a more affordable cost.