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nemo37 on 19 March 2018
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quickrick said:
nemo37 said:
Despite coming in last place for the month (which for me was not unexpected due to MH for PS4 which I believed would push current owners to potentially upgrade to PS4 Pro and the discounts on Xbox One both of which would those platforms to increase their unit sales), Switch sales are quite good for its first February (it done comparatively well to other platforms in their first February).

The biggest surprise for me was PS4 outperforming Xbox One. I was expecting Xbox One to come in first for this month because of the discounts. My hunch here is that while the PS4 Slim remains the top selling model for the PS4 platform, MHW may have spurred a greater number of current owners to purchase a PS4 Pro (this hunch is based on increased rankings. I wish that we could get a breakdown of PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro, Xbox One S, and Xbox One X to see if the data confirms or disavows my hunch.

More specifically with regards to Xbox One, considering the US is a strong market for this system and it was positioned well for tax returns month, I wonder if the tracking period potentially did not fully cover the discount period. If this turns out to be wrong then I guess the discount period was simple not long enough to allow Xbox to take the month.

Does anyone know what the tracking period was for February NPD? Also what is the tracking period for March (with regards to March, I am currently pegging the Switch to come out on top due to it toping charts on Amazon and Best Buy and improving its position at GameStop but if part of the March tracking period falls during the Xbox One's discount period then Xbox would be in a very strong position)?

ps4 is ahead  of switchat best buy and gamestop, i check almost every 2 days.

I have been looking at the Best Buy charts daily and Switch has been consistently on top since the first week of March. In fact, as of the time of this comment the Neon Switch SKU is at the top of the charts on Best Buy. Beyond that, with regards to the second SKUs for all consoles (by which I mean the second highest selling SKUs for each platform), the Switch Grey is the best selling second SKU for the consoles. 

As you can tell from my comment I said my prediction is based on the system " toping charts on Amazon and Best Buy and improving its position at GameStop". On Best Buy and Amazon the system has been topping charts, on GameStop it is not at the top of the charts (as both you and I correctly stated) but its position has improved. This means two major retailers have Switch in front with regards to chart position (a reverse of February where two out of the three, Best Buy and GameStop, had PS4 in front and where PS4 improved its chart positioning on Amazon). 

Looking at Gamestop more closely of the top selling new consoles, the top selling SKU is a PS4 Pro pre-order that will not be released until April. The second SKU is a glacier white PS4 Pro which is currently being sold exclusively at GameStop. The third SKU is a Monster Hunter GameStop exclusive PS4 Pro SKU that has been out of stock since February so its positioning is retrospective. There is also one Xbox One S Sea of Thieves SKU that is available for pre-order that The Switch SKUs and bundles that trailed both the PS4 Pro and Slim and many of the Xbox One S bundles in late-January and February have now overcome the Slim and the currently available Xbox One S SKUs. Considering that NPD does not count pre-orders towards a month's platform sales, I think Switch is in a good position (as of right now anyways) to take March. Two caveats are the NPD tracking period potentially favouring Xbox One and of course there is still one week of March left so things can change.

While I expect March to go to Switch (barring those caveats I mentioned being a factor), I am expecting PS4 to come out on top in April based on how strong pre-orders for the God of War PS4 Pro have been (I think this will be another game that will not only bring more players into the eco-system through the PS4 Slim but also push more existing owners to upgrade to Pro for that game). I am still undecided about my predictions regarding Xbox One and Switch in April with regards to which one will come in second and third place in April.

Last edited by nemo37 - on 19 March 2018