Kaneman! said:
Sure, why not. I will not be surprised if it blows by that mark, though. Especially looking at how 1-2 Switch did.
Because I'm skeptical of the concept. I see zero appeal of it, but I imagine that's why I don't belong to Nintendo's audience. But then, Nintendo says it wants to market that to young children, right? That opens some questions. How many little kids own a Switch? How many Switch owners are going to buy it for their kids? How many Switch owners are going to let kids play with their Switch, risking it to be broken? And lastly, why would you play with cardboard if you have tons of better games to play? That's why I prefer lowballing the number. It could not sell high numbers, although I won't be surprised if it sells anywhere between 3-5 million. Anything more and Nintendo are geniuses for earning oodles of money on cardboard. |
I think this moment is an awesome opportunity in your life.
For the first time you may actually get to see inside the mind and heart of a Nintendo gamer. I don't think you'll "feel" what that feels like, but you'll be able to understand a bit more about what makes a Nintendo gamer content with low res graphics, cartoony images, and oddball game design.
First, I get that you see "zero appeal" in Labo. That is your opinion and it is a true statement. Obviously the internet, this forum, and many customers on Amazon (be they scalper or fan) find this product to be very appealing. And I think you may be close to identifying what makes you not part of "Nintendo's audience." This isn't a slight against you...that's your feeling and there's certainly nothing wrong with having different tastes than the next person.
Your skepticism of this product, however, is rooted in your personal expectations for games and gameplay. and that could be your downfall in a prediction thread. Don't get me wrong, you could be absolutely right as well, and this thing could tank on arrival and go the way of Wii Music.
I don't see how that could possibly happen, even if the Toy-Con variety pack only included the piano.
I think Nintendo's stance on this being crafted for children and kids at heart is part of the genius of their strategy. I think they're lying and they know that the average Nintendo gamer is already a "kid at heart," but that second part of the line is intended as a challenge. You see, most Nintendo gamers will be the first to admit that they're just big kids that never outgrew their toys. And they never intend to; it's what gives them joy in life and without it many would feel like they "lost something." Thankfully, Nintendo continue to rekindle that passion in us even as we hit our thirties, forties, fifties, and so on. The feeling of childlike wonder, after all, isn't confined to kids.
How many kids own a Switch:
Well many would tell you that the Switch is a kiddie console and that Nintendo is a kiddie company, so I'm surprised to see this as your first argument. The answer is that in 10 months the Switch sold more than the WiiU in all its lifetime (no big feat, right) and is on track to be the fastest selling video game console of all time. That's quite a few kids, I promise you...and more importantly, many, many more to come.
How many Switch owners will buy this for their kids:
While gaming can be a solitary act, it rarely needs to be, and very often isn't. Many people love to watch people play games, and many people like when their significant other or kids watch them play. Right there you have a great opportunity for a shared experience doing something both the kids and parents will love. Trust me, if a kid says, "Mom, Dad, that looks so cool! I can't wait to color in my house, rc car, piano, etc," the parent will happily drop down the small surcharge on the price of a normal game to foster that creativity and ensure at least a few hours of true bonding with their child. In fact, with how smart kids are these days with technology, it could be a great moment for a parent to be able to help their child once again. Mom and Dad will be there heroes of the house yet again!
How many Switch owners will let kids play?
Parents are pretty awesome. This needs to be said. They dress their kids in their favorite sports teams, put them in halloween costumes of their favorite superheroes, and wake up early in the morning to watch their favorite childhood movies with them. They also love to have the opportunity to bond with their kids around something as joyful as video games. The easy answer to your question is which parents wouldn't let their kids play. They'd be missing out on a great opportunity to create memories with their child and they'd just feel like jerks for denying the kids the fun they experienced as a kid.
There is no "instead," there is only "as well." It's not like Nintendo isn't releasing some of the most amazing software they've ever released for the Switch. Even the 3rd party outings this go around have been pretty great. The indie titles are performing better than their MS/Sony counterparts with much larger install bases and everything seems to point in the direction of success for the Switch, despite its somewhat inferior graphics capabilities.
Then, riding on the success of the "core gamer" Nintendo announces this title obviously aimed at the "blue ocean." It's a move that shows Nintendo is dedicated first and foremost to the NES, SNES, N64, Gamecube gamers. But it also shows they still have love for the legions of Wii fans who never gamed before. This isn't just cardboard; this is the chance to play something completely different (please, by all means, show me something that is just like Nintendo Labo) in new and creative ways that doesn't create tons of plastic that will be thrown away, or stored in cabinets and toy boxes, and garages, and likely peddled off for pennies at a yard sale in ten years.
I know that's a lot to read in defense of this silly product. I also know that much more has already been written about Nintendo Labo and much more will continue to be written. This will be a phenomena for many of the same reasons the Wii was. Because it is different, reaches new audiences, and completely gives the hardcore fan a conniption fit. Your resistance will indeed be one of the greatest assets this toy has during its success.
I like that you've increased your initial estimate to 3.5 million "if it's very successful." I think that is a much healthier response and one that shows you've already gotten a better understanding of this foreign creature known as the Nintendo gamer. I'll be the first to admit that we are an odd bunch. I mean seriously, even Michael Pachter predicted that we'd buy cardboard if Nintendo put their name on the box. But to use that quote as justification for how ridiculous Nintendo Labo is is to underestimate the genius behind the product and the tendency Nintendo gamers have to gravitate to new, joyful experiences.
