It depends their business moves. As Kimishima said, they want it to sell as good as the Wii. Anything below that and Nintendo would consider it a failure - obviously! They never sold less than 85m consoles in a generation (after the NES) and this gen was a disaster for them. I don't trust Nintendo to make all the right decisions but 100-150m is the ballpark for me. They need to outsell the Wii and they'll want to aim at DS numbers.