Barkley said:
13.5-14m shipped by end of 2017. Though it could be a little higher then that. |
So you expect basically USA and Japan sales to ONLY account for 68% or 63% of shipments. Maybe i should you show that:
Q1 2017 - 2.74m
NPD + MC = 1.48m / 54% of shipments
Q2 2017 - 1.97m
NPD + MC = 1.05m / 53% of shipments
Q3 2017 - 2.93m
NPD + MC = 1.49m / 51% of shipments
Switch sold over 2.5 million in USA and over 1.5 million in Japan last quarter. Switch USA/Japan ratio decreased every quarter, and it was never as high as 55%, and even using that, Switch would be at over 7.27m shipped... for a total to 14.9M, USING THE LOWEST US/JP RATIO EVER... oh, and i round low, cause tecnically Japan is 1.52m, and US is OVER 4.8m LT, so we talk about OVER 4 million US+JP. You, and literally everyone massive underestimate Switch performance in the rest of world, and for "rest of word" i don't even mean Europe, cause people still think RW = Europe.
Europe is PART of rest of word, but people only considere Europe. Switch shipments:
Q1 2017 - 2.74m
AM - 1.20m
JP - 0.60m
RW - 0.94m
Q2 2017 - 1.97m
AM - 0.75m
RW - 0.69m
JP - 0.52m
Q3 2017 - 2.93m
AM - 1.17m
RW - 0.93m
JP - 0.83m
You expect only 5.87 to 6.37 million units shipped this quarter, do you really don't understand how low your numbers are?
To be honest, using a < 55% ratio, my 15 million prediction i made in January is still super strong. Right now i'm not too confident in that but only because i want to be conservate, it's surely by far more realistic than your numbers lol.
Switch shipments are gonna be 14.5m-15m or more, anything under 14m is crazy.
