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Ryng on 13 January 2018
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Barkley said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Switch sales in Japan are at 3.3 million as for 24 December 2017, and account for 25% of WW sales, which mean Switch is at ~13.2 million worldwide.

With another week, is pretty fair to assume that 13.5 million will be the minimum of Switch sales in 2017, not the maximum. I actually think 13.6/13.7 million will be the final number, with worldwide shipments at around 14.5 million.

Well VGC's figures are now going to be 13m tops, but we can compare them to official and media create to check how their tracking is in Japan/USA.

Japan - 3.2m (December 24th. Media Create) 

USA - "Over 4.8m" (First 10 months, January 3rd-ish?, Nintendo)

Now for VGC.

Japan - 3.19m (December 23rd) seems spot on with Media Create

USA - 4.7m (December 23rd), With another week, or slightly over a week, to go it actually looks like VGC is overtracking USA a little bit.

So there doesn't seem to be a reason to believe VGC is undertracking the Switch by any substantial degree, so now the Switch should end around 12.4-12.8m

So no 13.5m wasn't the minimum, my range was seemingly too high. I couldn't find the 25% figure you used, but I think the problem was taking that source too literally, a deviation of a single % would be a massive difference.

So only because US/JP looks "right" it can't be undertracked in the rest of the world?

 

Anyway, guess what, Nintendo france has confirmed that Switch outsold Wii U worldwide. 

https://www.lesnumeriques.com/loisirs/switch-retrogaming-super-mario-zelda-l-incroyable-come-back-nintendo-a3491.html

 

When you will see Switch over 14 million shipped at worst, you'll see why VGC clearly undertrack Switch.