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For only U.S. sales, PS4 has to stay within $50 of XB1S to win. If XB1S stays down around $200, and PS4 is up around $300, than XB1S could take the win.
I don't think Switch will win because it seems like NiN isn't going to budge at all on price, which isn't a surprise, and I think PS and XB will try and keep their base unit price low enough to try and entice people to stay away from Switch, as well as each other.
I wouldn't be surprised if PS4 (non bundle) ends up being $249 after cyber monday and $229 on boxing day.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.