PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Miyamotoo said:

Its very hard to compare first PS4 FY and first Switch FY because of two reasons, first PS4 was launched during holiday season while Switch was launched in March, and second Switch most of time until now was supply constrained and still is in Japan for instance. So it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

Once Nintendo release 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros...they will start releasing new 3D Mario, new Zelda, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon, new IPs, some strong 3rd party exclusives...you forgetting that Switch is becoming only platform that Nintendo will support and they will not have any more deviaded resources on separate handheld and separate home console games, that automatically means much better support and much better managing of key and strong titles during evre year compared to past platforms.

Also, Switch like only Nintendo platform, will have few revisions (similar to 3DS family) that will further increase sales, so Switch platform can easily have more than 4 strong years, and actualy I think life span of "Switch family" will be quite long.

In my analysis I discounted PS4's first two quarters but even after that adjustment the PS4 still manages to come on top with ~14.8M units shipped in one of it's slower year while the Switch is only able to come close with arguably one of it's better year in terms of software releases and Switch's supply stopped being an issue for the past 3 months in every other region aside from Japan ... 

Digest the fact for a moment that the Switch was only able to come close to PS4 in it's slowest year so far with 4 of it's biggest franchises. That's not all, the scariest part is that PS4 going into it's 5th fiscal year still has a strong possibility of shipping more than it's 1st fiscal year and it may not yet be until it's 6th fiscal year that it will have the lowest amount of shipment! 

There's only so much hardware a second entry of those same franchises on the same platform can move and I doubt there'll be any strong 3rd party exclusives for the Switch when the biggest 3rd party exclusives on it's predecessor such as Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch are on a decline ... 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

It's already matching the PS4, week for week in the Launch-aligned sales. The PS4 build up a lead due to having had a holiday season while the Switch didn't just yet. The PS4 had it's biggest advantage against the Switch at week 20, with a 2.1 Million lead, but that one has dropped during summer to 1.8 already in Week 29 and with the incoming holiday season, it will surpass the PS4 until the latter has it's second holiday season

And despite this being the PS4s best year to date, The Switch still steals it's show in the US and in Japan, with just Europe keeping the PS4 ahead of the Switch. So I really don't see where you ge that Switch has to match the PS4 first, as it's already doing so on all levels

That's not true at all currently even with launch aligned sales but even if the Switch were to catch up that speaks more to PS4's strength of being able to keep up with a system that has had 4 blockbusters so far in it's slowest year ... 

It really doesn't matter if the PS4 launched at the holiday season or not since it's the Switch and the 3DS that's gets the short term advantage when only tracking launch aligned when they can enjoy having two spikes by having a separate launch and holiday season. PS4 is not able to get that advantage since it launched in the holiday quarter and it shows since PS4's first holiday was it's weakest one ... 

If we were to use other measures such as calendar year sales or fiscal year shipment, the Switch would only just be able keep up with the PS4 ... 

VideoGameAccountant said:

First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.

On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system. 

But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them). 

What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years

2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

 

• Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
• Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
• The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
• Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M

2017 (4/1/2017 - 9/30/2017) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171030_4e.pdf

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 4.42M
• Splatoon 2 - 3.61M
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.93M
• ARMS - 1.35M

With only 6 months in, Nintendo's titles are doing better on the Switch than they did on the 3DS. Mario Kart 8 will outsell Mario Kart 7. The lowest game (ARMS) is already higher than the lowest game on 3DS (Pokemon Rumble Blast). Zelda on Switch will likely beat Zelda on 3DS. This also doesn't include Super Mario Odyssey (which has already broken 2 million) and Xenoblade Chronicles X (which could sell 1 million thanks to Zelda and Skyrim creating demand for those types of games). So in the software department, the Switch is doing better. 

You made the point that 3DS second year didn't see a huge increase despite Animal Crossing and NSMB. But software is already doing better on Switch, so why wouldn't we assume that these games would push the Switch more than they pushed the 3DS. If you compare 1st fiscal years for both, the Switch will likely sell more. If you look at the second, it will be night and day. But you are using the 3DS because it fits the trend you like. If you look at how software is doing on both, and what shipments are projected to be in the 2nd fiscal year, it wont be like the 3DS. You could argue it will be like the PS4. You could argue it could be like the DS. But it's already outperforming the 3DS and this is the one you want to use a base line.

Lawlight summed it up for you nicely in the first paragraph and It's ironic that you're a "VideoGameAccountant" when you make such as basic mistake ... 

Again, that figure is just a rumor and Switch supply stopped being an issue for the US in the past 3 months since you can buy a Switch at MSRP from 3 big retailers such as Amazon, Gamestop and Walmart so people such as peachbuggy are giving the Switch demand way too much credit ... 

I already explained why there's a possibility the Switch might not be able to match the PS4 in it's second year in my previous post so I won't reiterate again ... 

Why not compare it to the 3DS ? Their not too dissimilar in terms of launch, pricing and lineup in their lifetime so far. Comparing the Switch to the DS makes no sense when the latter had a revision released while there's no revision on the horizon for the former, both have very different sets of titles in their first year and they didn't even launch in the same period either ... 

Switch selling more software does not necessarily mean that the Switch itself will sell more as indicated by Nintendo's expected forecast so while Nintendo's games are breaking records, their hardware isn't ... 

Really not hard to see the relationship between the Switch and 3DS when you look at the launch, games and most importantly forecast ... 

Ehm... what?

I'll give you the time of launch, and the initial price was pretty high for a pure handheld which put it close to the Switch, but that's about it.

About the Lineup, the 3DS was starving during it's first year, unlike the Switch. Also, The 3DS needed a huge pricedrop to sell well, and even after that the sales where lower than what the Switch is achieving without any pricedrop

By your logic, we should compare the PS4 to the 360 and thus the PS4 wouldn't achieve more than 85M lifetime. Sounds Bullshit? Well, it is, but not more than your comparison of the Switch with the 3DS

Also, both the DS and the 3DS got revisions. New 3DS and DSi ring any bells?

About what you replied to my post: Moving the goalpost, much? First you claim the Switch can't keep up with the PS4 and now you say it's a great achievement for the PS4 to keep up with the Switch? Nevermind the fact that the PS4 is very established now and has a big library of games, it was to be expected that it would do very well this year (though I admit I didn't expect it to do that well). I also don't get where you got the slowest year, unless you meant the Switch with that, because it's by far and large the best year for the PS4 so far - and yet the PS4 gets beaten in the US repeatedly and trashed in Japan by the Switch. It's only in Europe where the PS4 really shines, though admittedly by a gig margin.

I don't think you mean any bad, but with clipping the Switch to the 3DS you made a fatal mistake because they are very different in how they went in their first year

Oh, and about Amazon: The Switch goes regularly out of stock there, just check the Amazon US thread and see for yourself. And what gets sold there are just preorders for the next shipments, as Amazon can't keep up with the demand; it hasn't really been in stock since the prelude to the Odyssey launch anymore.