| fatslob-:O said: It really isn't ... All of Nintendo's numbers in quarterly reports are SHIPMENTS ... (even when we're comparing on a fiscal year basis, PS4 is still going to ship more than the Switch according to Nintendo) You don't need WSJ to tell how many consoles were shipped during the fiscal year, we can get the figures from the console manufacturers themselves in their quarterly reports. The 25-30M figure is just a rumor and nothing more when Digitimes reported a rumor that Nintendo expected the Switch to ship 20M units for this fiscal year but they were off by 6M units when Nintendo only raised their forecast by 4M units totaling to 14M units for this fiscal year ... Actually, there might be precedent to show why the Switch may not match PS4 in it's second year and it doesn't matter how many games are releasing for a system but what are the relevant games. When all is said and done for this fiscal year Nintendo is expecting to ship a total of 16.74M units for the Switch and in comparison to the 3DS which released in a similar timeframe to the Switch had shipments totaling 17.13M units for the end of it's first fiscal year ... Nintendo is expecting to ship 14M units for this fiscal year on the backbone of Zelda, MK8:D, Splatoon 2 and SMO. For comparison the 3DS shipped roughly ~13.5M units in it's first fiscal year with games such as Nintendogs + Cats, Zelda, SM3DL and MK7 yet coincidentally they'll both have similar shipment totals ... We don't know what Switch's titles are going to be next year but 3DS in 2012 released with blockbusters such as NSMB2 and AC:NL was only able to increase shipment by ~400K units for the following fiscal year which amounted to ~13.9M units for the second fiscal year so if the release schedule on the Switch is anything like the 3DS was in 2012, there's not much chance for the Switch to keep up with the PS4 or let alone match it when it is already not doing so ... My numbers are not off but I do admit to using a different methodology such as using calendar years ... |
For how much longer are you going to use the same tired arguments and logical fallacies?
1.) 3DS was $170. Switch is exceeding its performance while costing $130 more. Yet, in your mind, this indicates equivalent demand for the product.
2.) NSMB2 and AC:NL were the only blockbusters that 3DS had in 2012, and AC:NL didn't even release anywhere except Japan and South Korea until June 2013. In terms of system sellers, 2011, 2013, and even 2014 have superior lineups. Of course, by this point, 3DS already had a tarnished reputation, so it's laughable that you think Switch will follow the same trajectory.
3.) DS and PS2 were both behind PS4 by the end of their first full fiscal years, yet, as of 16 quarters, both are now ahead. PS2 is ahead by 2M despite not launching anywhere except Japan for the its first three quarters. DS launched similarly to PS4, except with a delayed Q1 launch in Europe instead of Japan, and is ahead by 16.8M. On the other hand, GBA and Wii had much better first years than PS4, but we certianly don't expect PS4 to end up behind those two consoles. Clearly, first year performance tells us little about the differences in lifetime sales between successful platforms. All we can say is that platforms with good sales right off the bat continue to have good sales.
