Extra Bold: Super Mario Odyssey Will Ship+digital 20mil Lifetime! (17.4mil Currently)

[Jumpin]

StarDoor said:

Jumpin said:

Your stats actually show that it doesn't, though. Despite Super Mario Galaxy 2 having higher day 1 sales, they still hit the saturation point. Despite Super Mario 3D world having much lower day 1 sales, it still managed to get within range of the saturation point. Only Super Mario 3D Land sold high, and that game has another aspect about it (which I actually discuss above), that it is handheld.

I do think Super Mario Odyssey will sell higher than other 3D titles, but not because day 1 sales indicate it, but because Switch has handheld functionality.

Galaxy 2 launched 41 months after Wii did, while 3D World launched 11 months after Wii U. Everyone knows that launch sales make up a larger portion of lifetime sales as a console ages.

If you correct for launch date, first week sales almost perfectly explain the lifetime sales of a mainline Mario game. The R-squared value is over 95%, and the p-value is less than 0.0002.

Please don't go around saying what the stats do and don't show if you haven't actually analyzed them.

You didn't bring up launch date in your initial argument. Also, where's your graph? Put it up. I'm not taking your word for this, nor am I going to redo the work for you. Assuming you've already done it. Lets see every Mario game fit this model.