Jumpin said:
Your stats actually show that it doesn't, though. Despite Super Mario Galaxy 2 having higher day 1 sales, they still hit the saturation point. Despite Super Mario 3D world having much lower day 1 sales, it still managed to get within range of the saturation point. Only Super Mario 3D Land sold high, and that game has another aspect about it (which I actually discuss above), that it is handheld. I do think Super Mario Odyssey will sell higher than other 3D titles, but not because day 1 sales indicate it, but because Switch has handheld functionality. |
Galaxy 2 launched 41 months after Wii did, while 3D World launched 11 months after Wii U. Everyone knows that launch sales make up a larger portion of lifetime sales as a console ages.
If you correct for launch date, first week sales almost perfectly explain the lifetime sales of a mainline Mario game. The R-squared value is over 95%, and the p-value is less than 0.0002.
Please don't go around saying what the stats do and don't show if you haven't actually analyzed them.
