Extra Bold: Super Mario Odyssey Will Ship+digital 20mil Lifetime! (17.4mil Currently)

[Jumpin]

StarDoor said:

Jumpin said:

The point is the outstanding day one sales recent FF games didn't mean they were going to vastly outsell all past Final Fantasy games. Final Fantasy was an obvious example, and that's why I used it. Unless you can prove that bigger day 1 sales = bigger overall sales in the Mario franchise, then the comparison is apt.

This isn't true everywhere, but bigger day 1 sales do indicate bigger lifetime sales in Japan.

New Super Mario Bros: 6.50M (910k)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 4.70M (944k)
New Super Mario Bros. 2: 2.57M (423k)
New Super Mario Bros. U: 1.30M (167k)

Super Mario 3D Land: 2.15M (342k)
Super Mario Galaxy: 1.20M (260k)
Super Mario Galaxy 2: 0.98M (340k)
Super Mario 3D World: 0.76M (102k)

Your stats actually show that it doesn't, though. Despite Super Mario Galaxy 2 having higher day 1 sales, they still hit the saturation point. Despite Super Mario 3D world having much lower day 1 sales, it still managed to get within range of the saturation point. Only Super Mario 3D Land sold high, and that game has another aspect about it (which I actually discuss above), that it is handheld.

I do think Super Mario Odyssey will sell higher than other 3D titles, but not because day 1 sales indicate it, but because Switch has handheld functionality.