Bofferbrauer2 said:
MarkkyStorm said:
Without Pokemon:
Between PSP and DS (8-9 millions).
Without Pokemon, but with price drop for holidays:
Between DS and PS4 (10-12 millions).
With Pokemon out this holiday:
More than PS4 (15 millions) |
Seems like it doesn't need either to achieve that number
Helloplite said:
I can only present a low-case, expected, and high-case scenario:
Low case: Switch fails to turn up at E3, with few third-parties actually on board with anything of substance. Rumours about how third-parties did not expect the initial buzz go around, but ultimately third parties decide to treat the Switch just like the Wii -- resulting in low-quality past-gen ports, quick mini-game and handheld-focused simple projects. Mario Odyssey is delayed to 2018 "to ensure optimal quality". Without a big new exclusive, Switch loses steam as people remember the sting of Wii's final 3 years. Sales drop to levels similar to Wii U's first year.
Sales: 8.7 million
Normal case: Good software line-up based on exclusives by both Nintendo and its second parties as well as select third parties. A low number of high quality 3D ports from current-gen consoles. A number of good ports from old-gen systems (both by Nintendo as well as by third/second parties). The system retains its current cult status into the winter, and is further boosted by the excellent Mario Odyssey. The system remains in relative scarcity during the whole year, and stocks are never in full availability.
Sales: 12.8 million
Best case: An excellent demonstration of support by third parties, alongside meaningful Nintendo first and second party games shows strong intent to keep the Switch focused on 'quality games', rather than quick cash-grabs. Mario Odyssey goes on to exceed Breath of the Wild in review rankings, and sells very strongly during December, raising the system's appeal. The system is very hard to find throughout the year.
Sales: 14.3 million
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Best case is spot on what is happening right now
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Yeah, I was totally convinced that $299 was too much expensive and that would hold the sales back. I was SO wrong.
