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Ryng on 19 October 2017
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tbone51 said:
To give some perspective:

=> there was 1 Switch model on amazon in september in the top 30, placed at #15.

=> there are 3 Switch models in october, placed at #7, #12 and #21. And that is 8 days before Mario Odyssey...

==> Switch in october will most likely have phenomenal sales.


Switch won in Sept and obviously guaranteed for Oct.

Possible switch wins Nov+dec?

Well, let's see.

Last year PS4 sold 2.68 million during the holidays, this include 480k PS4 Pro.

This year the PS4 was up YOY for literally ever months since March, if we esclude May (Uncharted 4 month).

This trend may have changed last month though, since PS4 sold 285k in September 2016, and there is a realistic chance PS4 in September 2017 sold less than that. Another thing, it sold less than Switch, which was 215k last month, but since we haven't Switch numbers yet, we don't know how PS4 performed last month. I'm sure it was pretty close with 2016 results by the way.

Sony estimate 18 million PS4 shipped this FY18, down by 10% compared to 20 million in FY17, so Sony expect PS4 to ship less than last year, but that's does not mean PS4 will for sure do less, because:

 

  • We talk about shipments, not sales
  • We talk about worldwide, not USA
  • We talk about Fiscal year ending in March, not in December
  • And of course, PS4 sales can surpass Sony expectations, is already happen many times
That said, i think is likely PS4 this holidays won't do as good as last year. I think is already incredible that PS4 was up YOY so much for the first half of the year, it may start to "struggle" a bit now, but is normal considering is at his 4th year. It depend if Sony do a pricedrop i guess.
Anyway, i think the only chance Switch outsell PS4 this November and December is if PS4 is down YOY, because almost 2.7 million is a lot and will be very difficult for Nintendo to ship so many units. I think that if Switch beat PS4 this holidays in USA, then PS4 will probabily underperforme a lot. This, or really Switch is going to have a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay bigger holidays than i expect... I just think it will be hard to sell close to 3 million in 2 months in USA alone.

 

StarDoor said:
tbone51 said:
To give some perspective:

=> there was 1 Switch model on amazon in september in the top 30, placed at #15.

=> there are 3 Switch models in october, placed at #7, #12 and #21. And that is 8 days before Mario Odyssey...

==> Switch in october will most likely have phenomenal sales.


Switch won in Sept and obviously guaranteed for Oct.

Possible switch wins Nov+dec?

Switch winning November and/or December is very unlikely unless Nintendo increase their shipment forecast for the fiscal year by at least 2 million.

...Well, i mean, you really think 2 million is THAT much? At this point i think 2 million over the original forecast (10 million ) should be the minimum, i mean considering how strong is the demand they could as very well ship 15 million during the FY18, and still not satisfy the demand.