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I would actually rather ask how many 3rd party exclusives they need. Nintendo has never had any issues with any of their consoles when it comes to first party lineup, but as good as Nintendo is at making games they can't fill a console's library by themselves.

Nintendo can generally be trusted to bring out at least one or two big titles each year, most of which will likely be very good, but very often the problem has become filling the gaps between Nintendo's own big titles. It's not an issue yet, especially with how great the games they've made so far are, but in the long run the Switch will need to have big exclusives that aren't made just by Nintendo.