Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

[Mr Puggsly]

superchunk said:
XboxOne will likely remain for sell in some form until Switch is about 4 yrs old.

I would guess that at the current rate, Xbox One family will top out around 65MM.

I would guess that if Switch can remain popular, take over portable titles, become 100% solution for 1st party, and get continuous 3rd party support (this does not mean AAA parity), then it will top out around 80MM. Why only 80MM when revisions of the other consoles allowed them to sustain high yearly sales? Switch will be impacted more from the new gen hardware in MSony at the same time and I'm betting some of the AAA launch titles won't be on the latest version of Switch at that time. Thus Nintendo will need to put out its 3rd Switch revision (Switch 2) which would then count as a separate console family.

Where these cross would likely be in Switch's 5th year.

I think the big questions are how strong will X1 sales will be and will Switch lose momentum.

If X1 can maintain about 7-8 million sales a year, that should get them to 60+ million. That would take about 4 years.

If X1 could do that, that means Switch would need to do 15 million units a year for 4 years to surpass the X1.

So... its possible Switch won't do it until the 8th gen is actually over.