The only thing I do think could be a bit of an issue for Nintendo in Japan this holiday is for *Japanese* tastes, their lineup is not that strong.
Mario Odyessy is a Sunshine style open world Mario and Japan tends to not really go crazy for those. Xenoblade should do OK but it's not really a big selling IP there. Fire Emblem Warriors is OK. Beyond that there's not a ton.
Splatoon 2 is likely going to have to do a lot of the heavy lifting right through the year, which it probably can pull off, but it's not ideal.
I wonder where Dragon Quest XI Switch Edition is, that would help even though it'll be an old port at this rate unfortunately. Things like Skyrim, Rocket League, NBA 2K, and FIFA may help in the US, but these are not big in Japan.
So not making hay in Japan with lots of units during this early period was ill-advised. Maybe Dragon Quest Builders 2 could help? But I don't think S-E gave a date on that.
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