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StarDoor on 27 August 2017
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DélioPT said:
StarDoor said:

Every single one of your points is completely illogical.

1.) 3DS sales were up (and are still up) in the period after Nintendo started making mobile games. So, rather than replacing it, mobile has actually improved Nintendo's console business, which is exactly what they stated as the purpose of developing mobile games.

2.) 3DS has sold vastly more first-party software than the GBA. Nintendo would gladly trade 9 million in console sales for 90 million in software sales.

3.) Two years from now, Nintendo will have released a dozen new games. You know, just like every other console that has ever existed. Do you think Nintendo is just going to stop making games after this year or something?

4.) The Switch is a 3DS successor. Nintendo is not known for failing in the handheld market. You're trying to spin this as some sort of negative, when in reality, the Switch benefits greatly from being the only Nintendo console going forward. Now their home-console masterpieces like Breath of the Wild and Super Mario Odyssey are on the same platform as their immensely popular handheld IPs like Pokémon and Animal Crossing.
                               

1.) I recall hearing how 3DS HW sales were up. Still, it's also true that GBA sold 81.5 Million consoles in 4+ years and 3DS has sold 67+ million consoles in 6+ years.
SW wise, GBA, despite being on the market far less than 3DS is still ahead (377 m vs 335 m).
Don't understand why you chose to go with 1st party figures.

Overall, 3DS hasn't been able to outdo even the GBA.
As far as i see it, the mobile market has taken it's toll.

2.) I didn't claim that Nintendo will stop making games, what i said is that Switch is selling based on two main points: concept and a few system sellers.
What i questioned, was the ability to sustain the momentum. As in, the concept won't make Switch sell at this rate forever; also, we had a year with a great Zelda, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey (still to come, i know) and MK8. 
That's 4 main franchises in a single year + a system selling concept. This is a momentum that will be hard to beat/match in the coming years.

3.) Switch is not a 3DS successor. If anything, it's a Wii U successor.
Even it's concept is an extension of what Wii U (never) was.

But the point is, you have one console and seeing as Nintendo claimed that they aren't working on a 3DS successor, there's added pressure for Switch for the coming years.

1.) The GBA didn't sell all of its 81.5 million units in four years. It sold over fifteen million units after the DS was released. At the end of this fiscal year, (March 31, 2018) it will be 72 million 3DS to 81 million GBA.

Likewise, GBA software wasn't all sold in its first four years. In fact, the 3DS (369M) will be virtually tied with the GBA (377M) at the end of this fiscal year.

I used first-party software sales earlier because Nintendo makes much more money selling first-party games than third-party games. So the 3DS generation will have Nintendo sell slightly less hardware, an equal amount of total software, and much more first-party software. This is beneficial to Nintendo, because it shows that their first-party games are actually more popular now than they were during the sixth generation. More people are willing to buy Nintendo hardware specifically for Nintendo software, and the Switch is on pace to have one of Nintendo's best first-party lineups ever. You even acknowledge this by saying that this year has a great lineup while listing just four games.

By the way, saying the 3DS hasn't been able to outdo "even" the GBA is ridiculous. The GBA did exceptionally well, selling much faster than the original GB, which only made it to 118 million because it didn't have a successor until its 13th fiscal year. On the other hand, the GBA had a successor in its 5th fiscal year.

2.) That doesn't make any sense. The "concept" of the Switch isn't going to disappear after this year, and it's not going to suddenly become less appealing. Furthermore, even if 2017 has a great lineup (which is a hilarious tone-shift from the beginning of the year, when people were saying the Switch had a garbage lineup,) Nintendo cannot possibly meet all of the accumulated demand from this year. Sales that would have otherwise happened in 2017 will go to 2018 and beyond because Nintendo can't produce much more than 10 million units during this fiscal year. If you want a comparison, look at how the Wii sold in 2008 versus 2007. Unmet demand plus new system sellers like Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, and Pokémon will easily maintain momentum over the next few years.

3.) Okay, so what do you call a portable video game console that will absorb 100% of the software support that Nintendo gave the 3DS?

Also, how does the Switch have more pressure on it in the coming years if it isn't even a 3DS successor? If you just consider it a Wii U successor, it's already a massive success.