Failed Switch predictions of analysts

[Zkuq]

Miyamotoo said:

Zkuq said:

If people feel it's a high price, then it is a high price. Turns out the price is not too high, but there was a lot of criticism about the price before the launch. Switch is weak, no matter how you spin it, and it's a negative thing. It might be acceptable, but it's still a negative thing. One exclusive isn't enough in the long run. Luckily BotW doesn't seem to be the only strong exclusive, but I wouldn't exactly say criticising Switch's exclusives was invalid criticism either. The target audience was tough because it's both core gamers and more casual gamers. Generally it seems like the more casual audience is more interested in smartphone gaming these days, so getting their interest seemed difficult. On the other hand, Switch's weak power is more problematic for a lot of core gamers. I don't think being worried about the target audience was an invalid reason to be skeptical either.

There were (and are) a lot of things that supported Switch's success even before its launch, but there were also a lot of reasons why people might not be so confident in it. It requires a lot of insight to be able to properly assess all the things properly in an unbiased manner, and I don't think I've seen a single person on this site show such insight. It's possible there are some cases with proper insight in them, but most cases where people have been predicting anything about Switch's fate have been cases where people have made very shallow 'analyses'.

But people don't think price is high, and that's why sales are so good and Nintendo can't keep with demand,most of people who thought like that didn't realise that Switch is real handheld and real home console in same time, and that offers two controllers out of box for multiplayer. Depends how you look at it, if you look like handheld its incredible strong (in handheld mode its stronger than Wii U/PS3/Xbox 360), if you look it like home console it weak but again its around 3x stronger than Wii U/PS3/Xbox 360, so at end, Switch is strong enuf for what it is. Zelda BotW wasnt only exclusive, and we talking about one of strong launch game ever. Targeting home console market and handheld market in same time was very smart and very logical, from start was obvious that will be one strongest Switch selling point.

Switch from start had 3 things that are among most crucial for success of Nintendo hardware, great concept, great system seller game like launch title, and great branding and marketing, and later great schedule of games where we have one bigger or stronger Nintendo game on around every month. That alone tells us that Switch will do much better than Wii U in any case, in comparison Wii U failed with all those things, but some people failed to see that and predict that Switch will faile.

People thought the price was high. There were complaints about it all over the place. You can't possibly have missed that. It doesn't matter what's happening now because that's hindsight. If you want to talk about the accuracy of predictions, you can't use information that's available only after the prediction has been made. Back when the predictions were made, there were lots of complaints about the price and no one had bought the console yet, let alone tons of people. Criticism about the price was a valid concern back then. Like I said: Turns out price is not a problem, but people had every reason to assume it was back then. Also, it's completely irrelevant what you get for the price if people feel like the price is high.

Let me try to clarify this. I'm not arguing Switch is too expensive, or too expensive for what it has to offer. I'm also not trying to argue those predictions before the launch were correct. I'm only trying to argue that criticism about the price was valid before the launch because there were lots of complaints about the price.

I never said Zelda was the only exclusive. Read my post more carefully before you imply anything more about what I say. You're also looking at the target audience part differently than me. I'm not arguing it's not smart to try to attract both the home console and the handheld console audience at the same time. Again, read my post more carefully to see what I actually said about it.

As to your last paragraph, I must once again direct you to read my previous post more carefully. I must also ask: Did you give any though to my post or did you just jump to opposing things in it without thinking what I might have meant? I'm just saying there were a lot of reasons why people might have been skeptical about Switch before its launch, so it's understandable why the predictions might have been skeptical too. There were a lot of things backing up the success of the console as well, but there were also many negatives, and seeing whether the good things of the bad things were going to prevail was a pretty difficult thing if you really tried to think about it and assess all the things.

In case you're still not getting it: I'm not arguing anything about whether Switch is successful now, whether it offers enough good things to consumers, whether it's powerful enough or not, or anything about what we know now. I'm only trying to argue how it seemed back then when the predictions were made, which is mostly before the launch and before we knew anything about how things actually turned out. Everything that's happened after the predictions were made is hindsight, and everything's easy in hindsight. The predictions were wrong, but there were good reasons to be skeptical. You can criticize the predictions all you want, but ridiculing them for more or less reasonable reasoning seems stupid to me.

Wyrdness said:

Zkuq said:

You didn't do so in your reply to me, and your post containing the links didn't in any way indicate what kind of threads they were. Also, the second thread didn't predict Switch was going to sell less than Wii U, so that leaves one thread.

Except the are other threads I have linked in the topic and people in those threads doing the same thing, if you failed to read through the thread to see links it's not my concern.

Expecting me to read every single post and open every single link in them is just stupid. I'm sorry, but that's what it is. You didn't even label your links properly so I had no idea what was going on behind them. Seriously, what should I expect from 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.'? Just because you posts links to something doesn't mean I'm interested in what's behind them, and because you say you posted links doesn't mean I have to look for every single post of yours in this thread just to see which ones contain relevent links. If you want to prove a point, you should provide me with the posts directly and not point me to all around the place.