Xbox sales seem way too low, 5:1 is crazy.

[barneystinson69]

NawaiNey said:

Pemalite said:
I just want to be able to pre-order the Xbox One X already.

I still think the brand has some legs left in it still, so 50 million is entirely possible by the end of the generation, but that success is very much going to be driven by Scorpio and possible future games, Microsoft needs another big Halo 3 console pushing success.

IDK man, 50 million is a tall order. 

Let's look at some data. XB1 had sold 19 million units by the end of 2015. This was found out by subtracting the number Sony gave for PS4 at the end of 2015 from the number EA gave for both consoles at the end of 2015.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/29/10868370/microsoft-xbox-one-sales-19-million-ea

Now at the end of 2016 using the same method of subtracting the 53.4 million units Sony gave for PS4 from the 79 million figure EA provided for PS4+XB1, we know that it had sold 25.6 million units.

http://www.dualshockers.com/ps4-sells-6-2-million-units-customers-2016-holiday-season-reaches-53-4-million-units-sold/

http://www.dualshockers.com/current-generation-consoles-will-reach-105-million-units-sold-2017-according-electronic-arts/

So XB1 sold 6.6 million units in 2016 for the entire year, and it looks like they'll be down quite a bit this year judging by how it's selling this year so far. XB1X won't do much for the numbers, it's a niche product. I suspect it'll sell around 5-5.5 million units this year which will put it at around 31 million by the end of 2017.

PS5 should be out by 2019, or 2020 at the latest, so in 2018 and 2019, I can't see XB1 selling more than 8 million total. They have absolutely no system sellers in the works. 40 million is the optimistic figure we can expect for it right now.

How exactly is this possible? The XB1 sold 3 million in its first year, and around 8 million in its second and third year (that gets it to 19 million). Based on NPD and UK sales figures which show the XB1 doing slightly better or worse/flat yoy, so I seriously doubt the Xbox One declined 25% yoy WW. Maybe 7.5 million, but anything below that seems like its too low.