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Nuvendil on 12 July 2017
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Lawlight said:
Nuvendil said:

Well for one I am not talking about prior months, I am talking more or less about THIS month.  The one this thread is discussing.  Though worth pointing out, PS4 and Switch have split the last 4 months and prior to that...the Switch wasn't launched. 

My basis is that every time stock shows up, it's gone in a flash.  The fact that it is selling competitively on Amazon against he PS4 at $420, 120 over MSRP.  On a global level, PS4 has a strong argument in Europe but in Japan?  They're holding contests to win a chance to purchase the thing, it's selling out even faster than in the States, and Splatoon hype and preorders speak for themselves.

But really, it's that $420 thing that says the most.  The fact the PS4's SKUs struggle to keep up with the Switch SKUs on Amazon despite the PS4 being $260 - $40 off and bundled with a game - while the Switch is $420 - $120 over MSRP and not bundled with anything - is a very clear indicator of the high demand.  If it's matching the PS4 at such an absurd markup, then it is very simple logic to conclude it would very easily pass it.

Will it last?  And for how long?  Don't know.  Will it's demand be this high in the Holidays (proportionately)?  Don't know.  The Switch is hard to predict due to its design but also, obviously, the efect these shortages have on the data.  But I can look at what we have now, and it indicates a very, very strong demand for the Switch that, for the moment, outpaces the PS4. 

Except you don't know how much stock shows up online . It could be a dozen for all we know. And you yourself noted that the Amazon tracking is odd. Yesterday the Switch was #1 at $420 and now at #32 at the same price. Did interest drop a lot overnight? So again. No way to quantity interest in each system.

The amazon tracking is odd but not indecipherable. 

Switch was #1 ate $299.  Stock came in for Prime members only.  It then sold out and began falling slowly.

@bolded It's at #32 now because of Prime Day, tons of deals for Prime members which drove all manner of things up super high.  Unless you think Xbox One demand suddenly swelled to PS4-rivalling heights overnight for no apparent reason. 

And the stock coming in can't be just a small handful or it wouldn't sell enough to reach number 1 and stick there for so long, as that's how the hourlies appear to work.  That and it still sells at $420 which prolongs that hang time.  And when all is equal - that is, when it isn't Prime Day - the Switch is comfortably around the same level or slightly higher than the PS4 while marked up to $420.

And those brief stints at #1 for each SKU shot them up the monthlies from the teens and low thirties to #3 and #4.  So again, not dinky little influxes of supply.