Between PS3 and PS4 was like 6.5 years. Let's just round that up to 7. PS4 came out in 2013, so 2020 should be ps5 at the latest, so we have 3 years left. PS4 has sold 60 million so far (right?) but it came out in november so lets just assume it will have sold 62 million by November if not higher, averaged out sells 15.5 million Ps4s a year.
Wii U and 3ds combined sales right now are 80 million (if not higher). The Wii U is fizzling out, but the 3ds is gearing up to launch quite possibly their most popular iteration yet (a true successor to the DS) and launch a bunch of very popular 1st party games this year alone. The 3ds sells on avg. 11 million a year (66 mil divided by 6 years), though last year it actually grew but we will be conservative for now. The 3ds has at least 1 more year of really good support left, maybe even more, but again lets be conservative. Hypothetically if Nintendo doesn't do anything after this next year, thats still puts the 3ds+Wii U total at a minimum of 91 million + before its all said and done.
The Ps4 is at 62 million by November +(15.5x3 years to get to 2020) = 107 million by 2020. Now, if the ps5 launches earlier than the 6.5 year point (which I think is likely), then you have to subtract 15.5 million per year on average. So it may be close, but I made these numbers favor the playstation more and I was more conservative with Nintendo (the 3ds more than likely will have at least 2 more years of good support, plus I didn't calculate any Wii U hardware sales into the combined numbers going forward in the future).
Based on this, I think it is pretty unlikely that the ps4 will outsell the 3ds and Wii U. The only way I could see that happening is if they announce another iteration of the ps4 that will extend its life beyond the 6.5 year point.
Existing User Log In
New User Registration
Register for a free account to gain full access to the VGChartz Network and join our thriving community.
