MGS4 - SALES Prediction Thread -- HW & SW

[Stever89]

Soriku said:

DMeisterJ said:
Hardware:

Japan: 50k
Others: 200k
America: 200k

Software:

Japan: 400k
Others: 500k
America: 500k

That is my not so conservative expectations of the game.

They have about a 31.99724 percent chance of coming true.

Hmm...kinda that sounds about right. Though I'd put Japan HW at 60k and US/Others HW at 300k or so.

Japan SW seems about right (though it could be lower. Like 300k.) and Others/American software are fine I guess. Maybe 550k.

Soriku, I can't tell if I'm misreading something, but you can't seriously think that the PS3 will sell 300k in both Others and the Americas? That'd be 600k right there, something the Wii can barely do. Japan at 60k is reasonable enough, because it's hard to know how MGS4 will push hw there. You're software prediction is fine as well, since I have no idea how well this game will sell first week. But you're hw numbers are just... crazy. GTA4 didn't do that. I doubt MGS4 will.

I even think 200k is pushing it, since GTA4 wasn't able to do that either in Americas, and there was a bundle already in Others (so I doubt the MGS4 bundle will have a similar effect so quickly after the GTA4 bundle). The PS3 might push 200k in Americas not so much because of the MGS4 bundle, but because the bundle is also the return of the 80gb.

I guess we'll see.