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Mario Kart 8 sold over 8 million on the Wii U's tiny installbase, and Splatoon did almost 5 million, even though its legs got cut short by the Wii U not being available in Japan. Splatoon 2 will keep on selling for a long time, so the Switch installbase will have time to grow. Now add to that how insanely well Splatoon 2 will do in Japan, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say 11 million lifetime.