Nintendo shipped 2.74m Switch units, 5.46m sowtware, targeting 10m Switch units for FY 2017.

[Louie]

Barkley said:

You'd imagine post-launch predictions of future success would be easier to nail down then the 2m forecast they made for launch even before their pre-launch events.

But yes I'd imagine a forecast of 12.74m shipped by the end of March 2018 heavily indicates people predicting 15m+ (or even 17.5m) sold to consumers are reaching too high.

Nah, happend all the time during the Wii and DS years. If sales stay high they'll increase their prediction to 11m next quarter. Then 12m the quarter after that...