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Mummelmann on 26 April 2017
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Soundwave said:

Nintendo doesn't need a blue ocean. The blue ocean of the Wii/DS is actually the reddest ocean today, there are more games aimed at casual/fringe players being made today and more money spend marketing those games than traditional games today. Clash of Clans has a bigger marketing budget than any console game. 

You can't compete with free. It's a killer app and none of those people give a shit about buttons. You're not going to win them over "free" with "buttons". They probably even prefer no buttons because it forces smartphone devs to make simpler interfaces that are easier to pick and play. You can't compete with that.

Switch can go the other way though and create a premium high end experience that's never really been available before in portable gaming like this. Switch is unique by its very form factor and usability, it doesn't need all that other gimmicky crap. 

So much is made of HARDWARE sales too ... what about SOFTWARE sales guys? Do you know the GameCube has the highest tie ratio of any Nintendo system? Not DS, not Wii, not NES, but the fucking GameCube at a whopping 9.6 games per console. What if they could replicate a more GameCube like attach rate, but get a hardware base more along the lines of 3DS? 

If Nintendo can sell 70-75 million Switches even with a tie ratio of even 8 games per console (lower than GameCube) 560-600 million software titles sold, that's more than Wii U + 3DS combined by a mile, they will make a shit ton of money from that system. 

Maybe Nintendo should aim for that instead. Hardware is only there to drive software sales, how easily we forget this.

That's a great point, Soundwave. Software is king and the profit margins on software absolutely murders hardware of any kind, doubly so at the beginning of the life cycle of a new machine. This is how success should be measured. I won't be surprised if the Switch ends up with GC/N64 level attach rates on certain big titles, which will more than make up for the lack of a Wii Sports or Wii Fit, Nintendogs or Brain Age. It should be a good enthusiast machine and I think that at its core, the Switch will be most "hardcore" on the market as far as its main demographic goes. The outliers in demographics won't be easy to attract, but they might not be needed. If one had to choose between selling 100 million consoles with a poor attach rate and selling 60-70 million with awesome attach rate, the latter would be the best choice in the long run, installed base is mostly about bragging rights, having a big installed base is of lower value unless they keep investing in the platform.