I actually think it could go above 14 million since the design of Switch multiplayer is to have more than one system in the home. You could point to the 3DS numbers on this fact, but with the appeal of both home console and handheld, it immediately goes into family territory as well which draws from those Wii numbers. It will not be as much as the combined, but for this year, if they make them, they will likely sell them. At 18 million being promised, I wouldn't be surprised to see 16 million sold or more. Don't forget that even though the system is being frantically bought up and hyped right now, the holiday always comes with a huge rush of enthusiasm and purchases. There is no way that this system is going to level out in sales before the end of the year.
Talking also about the game release concerns, Nintendo has traditionally been split between handheld and home console. It has been much easier for developers to commit and create games for the wildly successful portables because the handheld market is more forgiving of smaller game design. Now that they are both in one, not only can Nintendo focus all their development efforts into this one platform with all handheld and console offerings, but all the 3rd party handheld developers will begin moving over to the switch, ideally. While this year will be initial adoption, hype, and novelty, next year will be about having multiple consoles, enlarged game library, and necessity (however I would not be surprised to see a more portable version come out to accommodate families with kids to ensure full market penetration.) The 3rd year will be about perfecting this new industry strategy of a "versatile component-comprised system." Wild cards are MS and Sony product reactions.
First Year Prediction: 16-17 million (or a few thousand shy of the amount shipped, if less)
