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I don't know.

1) I don't see how you can't get a refund unless you have Shield. Obviously it's in the interest of the seller to sell you a valid code or else his score decreases, which means less sales. Basically same principle as ebay. If you happen to receive a non-valid key from them, I'm sure they will send you another one. Basically, don't buy from someone who doesn't have a near perfect score.
When I look at what Shield offers, I don't see a guaranteed refund anywhere. You're getting priority in such cases, live chat an other stuff, but overall it's just a waste of money.
Regardless, these are keys we're talking about. Once activated, they are worthless. Thus there WILL be some customers who are going to activate them and then claim that these were invalid from the start. How can these guys be differentiated from the regular customers?
I guess they try to compensate the losses a little with the money they get from Shield.

2) I have no idea how a marketplace could check if keys from a 3rd party seller are legitimate. How would anyone other than the developer or publisher know? By showing a receipt of every single key they put onto the marketplace? Impossible, especially when you consider that many could've been aquired through private means where receipts aren't needed and therefore don't exist.
If I were G2A or a gamer (which I am), I wouldn't agree to the Gearbox's terms either. "open up a web service or API to certified developers and publishers to search for and flag for immediate removal, keys that are fraudulent". Yeah sure because devs and publishers love people who commercially sell their keys. They will just flag and ask for removal of every single key. That systems sounds as bad as the one used on Youtube to copyright claim legitimate videos.

3) "Within 30 days, G2A restructures its payment system so that customers who wish to buy and sell legitimate keys are given a clear, simple fee-structure that is easy to understand and contains no hidden or obfuscated charges"
I've never sold a key there but I certainly know how to buy one there and it's pretty simple already. Also I used two different methods of payment and there were no hidden charges and not even a fee. Really don't get that part.